Over the very long term it seems that EUR has been loosing ground against CAD as can be seen from this monthly chart of the par in that it is forming what appears to be a large falling wedge.
That said, we are in development of a large zigzag for Wave 4 and have near completion of the retracement. Note the following:
1. 50% Fib retracement of the move of the July 2012 low. 2. RSI back to 50 level - potential support. 3. In the proximity of previous resistance zone which should now offer support.
Within the range of 1.38 -1.40 zone where bottom could form, a long entry could be fine tuned using daily & H4 tome frame to either look for confirmation or to ensure risk is acceptable for the position size and account capital.
Upside target could be 1.60 from where an equally juicy reversal trade could unfold with eventual target of 1.2 or lower to complete this large falling wedge.
I anticipate lot of opportunity to swing trade this pair. Shorter term trades could trade in the direction of the trend rather than taking counter trend moves for reduce risk and increase odds of being more profitable.
Therefore little bit of work on your part could yield lot of profit.
Hi. Thanks. That could well play out. Though I am looking for longer term move, so even if that H&S fails there is still good chance for that low to form in close proximity. But your observation seems interesting.
NidalDarawsheh
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Hi Dan, Thanks for the feedback. While I am trying very hard to become a successful swing trader my psychology, lack of discipline and my humble knowledge won’t allow me. So I try to build a basket of small runners with zero or very small risk to overcome my panic attacks, I usually start with 3 positions with tight SL then close 2 at the first intra-day target and widen my stop for the swing runner. I have one small runner at the moment with zero risk from the 8th of Sep @1.41165 with SL 1.3930.
DanV
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That is perfectly fine. At least once you identify larger trend then you can trade in the direction of that trend and gradually build position with out increase risk as each trade has BE + small profit locked in.