With the ECB hinting that more quantitative easing is possible ahead of the rate decision March 10, the SNB may feel obliged to intervene to stop any significant appreciation in the franc. Thomas Jordan, Governor of the SNB, has said that negative interest rates have their limit; so, probable line if action would be a direct FX intervention.
Traders are not pricing in any significant change in from the ECB, so that may cause the EURCHF to rebound from its oversold, intraday position.
Price action is stagnating within a , and minor upside potential to 1.0935 and 1.0960 is seen leading into March. However, I don't foresee the SNB doing anything drastic (which may be highly dependent on the lengths the ECB is willing to go).
I expect future near-term CHF strength, causing price action to test the bottom of the . If this breaks, expect the pair to trade lower to 1.0860.
If the risk environment worsens, gold could trigger more safe-haven demand pushing EURCHF to 1.0830.
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