EURCHF At Key Technical Level Prior to ECB Meeting

FX:EURCHF   Euro / Swiss Franc
The Swiss franc has seen some action as traders move in and out of safe-haven assets, no matter what the Swiss National Bank implements (franc futures has a .82 correlation with gold ).

With the ECB hinting that more quantitative easing is possible ahead of the rate decision March 10, the SNB may feel obliged to intervene to stop any significant appreciation in the franc. Thomas Jordan, Governor of the SNB, has said that negative interest rates have their limit; so, probable line if action would be a direct FX intervention.

Traders are not pricing in any significant change in monetary policy from the ECB, so that may cause the EURCHF to rebound from its oversold, intraday position.

Price action is stagnating within a demand zone , and minor upside potential to 1.0935 and 1.0960 is seen leading into March. However, I don't foresee the SNB doing anything drastic (which may be highly dependent on the lengths the ECB is willing to go).

I expect future near-term CHF strength, causing price action to test the bottom of the demand zone . If this breaks, expect the pair to trade lower to 1.0860.

If the risk environment worsens, gold could trigger more safe-haven demand pushing EURCHF to 1.0830.

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Update status
Comment: Target hit much soon as risk asset sell off strengthens.


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