There's an old saying: "Don't fight the FED". Actually I would rather say stay on side of the Central Bank, until they have a proper policy in place on the STRONG side of their ccy. This means until they have the chance for easing and/or leaving the printing press switched on, it is very good to stay on the side rather then trying to attack the Giant. As I have written before, on the strong side their chance to protect against further gain is theoretically unlimited. Longer term side effects of these policies causing certain asset bubbles or inflating prices is a different issue. This was the case for example with the NBH in Hungary in 2003. Those days HUF was not yet fully a free floating, but pegged ccy in a wider intervention range. Some HFs and Banks tried to speculate in favour of the HUF to force the CB releasing the peg... who do you think won that game? Of course it was the NBH and those who positionned themselves for a weaker HUF at the lower band. The weak side of a ccy is different story, just think about Mr. Soros and Mr. Druckenmiller's speculation against the BoE. There you have chance to beat the house. You can play long rates and short ccy game, one side you'll win.
Back to CHF now. After selling Puts, I have decided to open some outright Longs too.
Daily: chart is still bearish, but there was an agressive spike two days ago from 1,2050 low. Sow Stoch and MACD are both bullish now. ADX started to drop, and DMI lost the bearish bias too.
4 Hrs: yes, there is already a counter trend, since the upper break of 1,2080. Actually on this last candle we had a Kijun retest, I used this to go long. Initial stop is at 1,2070... if you place a stop at all, since the commitment from SNB is still very clear to hold the 1,2000 floor. But there always must be a stop placed somewhere.
Upper resistance (key level) both on daily and 4 Hrs is 1,2130.