EURCHF at critical level

SNB set the floor for EURCHF at 1.2000 in Sept 2011. For more than 3 years, EURCHF has remain above 1.2000 ever since, and the market has not tested and challenged SNB resolve to hold the floor.

With the Swiss gold referendum coming up on 30th Nov, EURCHF is inching slowly towards 1.2000. Would the market finally decide to test this 1.2000 floor?

There are many, and i mean tons, of people being long EURCHF. And most importantly, placing their stops just below 1.2000. Generally at about 1.1190 and below. I would imagine the avalanche of stops triggered if EURCHF plunges below 1.1190. EURCHF would go down 200 to 300 pips in a jiffy.

Of course, SNB is expected to defend the 1.2000 floor with their "unlimited intervention." To break the 1.2000 flow, it would take a group of large institutional players to do so in a concerted selling effort.

For me, i think the prospect of the downside rewards is larger than the upside.

SELL STOP EURCHF 1.2005
SL 1.2050
TP open (if 1.2000 goes, the amount of stop losses triggered would push EURCHF down a few hundred pips quickly)

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