I find the down trend the most current trend, so I stay short as long as we're below the red median line. The price action may extend much lower to the purple parallelogram - as above, so below. However, the blue up fork starts to describe the price action pretty nicely. Which scenario do you subscribe to?
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cryptoyoda
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Looks like the downtrend is intact to me: really sharp decline on the drop from the last red-blue intersection, with wide range bars, uninterrupted by corrective rallies, about the same distance down as the decline from your C pivot. It's time for a bounce, but I doubt it'll be huge.
ForceFollower
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Right. Good eye. I used to trade differently - a couple of years ago I'd go long, enchanted by the new fork being so neatly in tune with the price action. Most often the omnipotent market would prove me to have been wrong.
cryptoyoda
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Seems to me the blue fork has no 'validation' at this point; the ML bounce could've been the red SP, and we don't even know if the C pivot will get enough of a bounce to be worth using as a C pivot ;) I seem to recall Coghlan commenting on a bounce on an MLH: "I'm not paying any attention to this; it needs to be further from the pivot to be significant".
(Yeah, 'book learning' talking again! :p I've been digging into Wyckoff; those comments are based on what I've picked up so far. I think Coghlan consciously or unconsciously used some Wyckoff principles; he presented at a "Wyckoff Rediscovered" seminar a few years back. I watched the recordings; he says uses pitchforks/channels and ABCDs - actually mentioning Rick Ackerman! Eventually he got embarrassed and said "I don't want to take too long, this is a wyckoff conference and I've realised what I do isn't Wyckoff.' The Wyckoff experts said 'Don't worry; we'd draw many of the same lines on our charts!'. Quite funny! I think he reads price action in a very similar way - perhaps now in part because he attended that seminar. Maybe only for a day, but it seems he was Tim Morge's star student, so he started with a strong grasp of indicator-free chart reading...)
ForceFollower
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That was hilarious! :D Thanks for sharing it with me... I like the expression you've just coined: 'indicator-free chart reading'. Although Tim Morge says that a pitchfork is an indicator.
cryptoyoda
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It was pretty funny; you can find those presentations online. He did mention a couple of things I don't remember him spelling out in the webinars on his site (eg use of ABCDs!) Check into chat if you've got a sec :)