Larger scale 5 wave pattern attempting to make the 5th wave (roman numerals). Smaller, still large 5 wave pattern complete (numbers). The smaller 5 wave is now looking for a correction. We have A and B, so we can measure the move for C, which would lie at around .875. The creation of point C would break through the descending trendline, which would also indicate further moves up in the long term. Lower time frame view shown below.
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Price completed 5 waves on the lower time frame. We can already see a move down, and it looks like there might be support very soon, which would formulate the A correction. If that is the A, we should see a move back up into the short term resistance, which would also create the right shoulder for a head and shoulders pattern. We can expect a measured move down to C, from which point a long may be a good idea. Price should not fall below large font "b".
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Big picture view.
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Price made a deep retracement after a mini 5 wave pattern. However, prices are still above the main "B" correction, and it stopped right at the 78.6% retracement which intersects with the broken trendline. Entered long with stops below "B", and holding until we see the "C". I took a very small position to mitigate the risk from brexit.
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And just a few weeks later...we're almost at our C.
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the_thing
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Hi lawlee! Our analysis is very similar, except i'm looking at the current correction as a nearly completed flat ABC (currently in wave C) correction on the 4H that will finish wave II of the movement on the daily at about .7826 for a .328 retracement of wave I.
But we agree there is an upward movement in the near future!
Not sure why I spent so much time analyzing a pair that I have no intention of trading this week. Good luck, and thanks for posting your analysis!
lawlee9
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Hi, thanks for the feedback. We have to see how price reacts when the markets open to really determine what's going to happen here. But the same with me lol. If I trade this, I'm not going to be holding it for long. Maybe just scalps until after the referendum.
But we agree there is an upward movement in the near future!
Not sure why I spent so much time analyzing a pair that I have no intention of trading this week. Good luck, and thanks for posting your analysis!