MitchellShoesmith

EUR/GBP - POST REFERENDUM

FX:EURGBP   Euro Fx/British Pound
Evaluating the strength of the EUR against GBP, comparing this to GBP/USD             , August seems to be a key month where we see the beginning of a trend occur following economic events such as a recession, eurozone crisis, eu referendum etc..

Following events yesterday, the GBP has significantly declined in value and i believe below are a few reasons that has resulted in the decline of the pound and could see it decline further:
1) Foreign Direct Investment - with high levels of volatility and uncertainty, with the threat of now entering a recession, the levels of FDI will decline.
2) Immigration - migrants from the EU have grew the workforce by 0.5% in the past 12 months, helping to achieve growth in the economy, something the UK economy will now lose access to through the free movement of labour.
3) Housing Market - we could see a fall now in house prices, again foreign investors will be reluctant to invest in property when they are uncertain of the future economic effects the EU referendum could have on the country.

From the reasons above i suspect a huge decline in the value of the pound. From this, i expect the value of the EUR against the GBP to increase to the projected value of around 0.87834 which are 2013 highs. At the moment we are testing the 61.8% fibonnaci retracement level of 0.80996, once we break through this i expect a strong move towards upwards.

Let me know what you think in the comments below.
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