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IvanLabrie
May 3, 2015 4:03 PM

EURGBP: Decisive moment 

Euro Fx/British PoundFXCM

Description

The next move will confirm what lies ahead:

For the time being, price is above the long term fair accepted price, which is bullish, but to confirm uptrend continuation from here we need to break above the resistance from the previous downtrend signal's mode, as well as break out from the channel, to confirm the move is a larger impulse series.

The uptrend target was almost reached, but there is lots of time left in the timer, so it might either reverse steeply down from here, or continue to rise after a brief cooldown.
Will update when I get a trade signal out of this chart.

Cheers,

Ivan.
Comments
IvanLabrie


Just sold the correction, looks like a zigzag down.
IvanLabrie


This is one of my favorite pairs...
ElPatron.Y
I agree with this one. Good example for "sell the rallies", the pair broke out my falling wedge, but there is a hidden bearish div on its way on the daily. So this breakout could be a false one :)
ElPatron.Y
On the 4h chart this divergence seems to be confirmed also RSI is 80+, so very overbought..
IvanLabrie
Yes, a vertical run up, could be a complete ABC zigzag correction up, before a new impulse down, or part of a more complex sideways correction...OR the beginning of a new uptrend.
It's important to watch how price action unfolds to determine the course of action. Watching 1h and 4h will be best.
IvanLabrie
So the move up was an ABC, we now know that.
Not much more to do for the time being on the daily tf.
Will look for a setup on lower timeframes.
IvanLabrie
Time to short this pair too.
IvanLabrie
EURGBP looks like a buy again.
Looking to get long on a retracement now.
IvanLabrie
I suspect we're in the presence of what people call a double top.
Watching to enter short here.
IvanLabrie


Calling this move impulsive is a bit hard right now...but wouldn't call it the start of a new downtrend either.
Time at mode 4h signal working, target almost reached, and price was near the 0.382 fib retracement area for wave 3 (if that was wave 3).
MACD offering clues here, momentum peaking on this leg down, no clear divergent 5th wave spotted, and the whole move looks like a more complex correction.
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