Predictive/forecasting model signals a nominal target attainment at TG-Lo = 0.73344, implying a high-probability reversal at this precise level. This target was defined today - There was no prior target defined at this level, so not a "Target Hit" announcement.
MARKET GEOMETRY:
The background geometry supporting this view is a 3-point line-up of a quasi-WW - Since the 1-3 and 2-4 Line are not strictly convergent, this pattern falls under one I have priorly defined as a alternate WW, or AWW - Geometric target rests at the level of AWW's point-4, or 0.87683.
FIBONACCI LEVEL:
The overall gist of price action is that of a bearish consolidation with multiple internal ZZ formations. This carries a high adherence to Fibonacci contractions of 0.618 and expansion of 1.618.
Looking at the contraction range, the 0.618 comes into close alignment with above geometric Point-4 of AWW, here at 0.88533 vs. 0.87683.
RSI INDICATOR:
Looking at the RSI-14, its historical, albeit taut line up at 17.45 with a prior nadir reached in mid July 2012 is calling for a probable rallying from here, adding further credence to the geometry and predictive model biases.
RELATIVE STRENGTHS:
On a comparative basis with other pairs or relative to the Dollar index itself, recent analyses are expecting further advances in the EUR and GBP relative to the USD, and decline in GBP relative to AUD. Therefore, the relative strength expression of EURGBP is net bullish, favoring EUR over GBP - See links below for recent analyses on GBPAUD as well as expectation of a decline in DXY and USDOLLAR:
Convergence of Fibs, market geos in support of the predictive/forecasting model supports a rallying from this current technical base. Insight into related currencies also point to intrinsic forces in favor of a EUR outperformance relative to GBP.
Stay tuned,
David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA
Now that price rolled all the way to a R/S level (see minor structure to the left of the price field), a support at this level has likely been reached.
In terms of geometric correspondence, the most important yet discreet event, is that of a perfect alignment with the background geometry's Point-4 with its 0.618-Fibonacci potential retracement level - See chart below:
In terms of individual currency behavior, look for strengthening in EUR or weakening GBP data, or both, which may carry this EUR vs. GBP relative strength to higher highs from here.
David Alcindor
4xForecaster
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24 FEB 2015 - Here is the chart at time of new analysis:
David Alcindor
4xForecaster
⋅
23 MAR 2015 - Update:
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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EURGBP continues to rally significantly; Interim retracement is expected:
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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EURGBP nears minor resistance @ 0.74031; moderate at 0.74972 nodule:
@TradingView EUR GBP USD #ECB #BOE #forex
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David Alcindor