A quick analysis on the EURGBP, illustrating a high-probability rally from current levels, based on a long-awaited reactive rally following the completion of the Geo's ectopic Point-5 at its most current 5-prime (5') position - See following chart:
Predictive/Forecasting Model had defined a floor from which a long position was ordered and filled, at 0.69629. This represents a rather long-haul of a horizon line, but the smaller frames should see a high-probability rallying from the recent nadir.
STRATEGIC ENTRY - GEO, MODEL, EAGLE:
The Geo filled its geometric requirements at each of its leg (i.e.: reciprocity in Leg 1-2; Elliott Wave ("EW") complex ZZ in Leg 2-3; simpler EW ZZ in Leg 4-5), as well as a validation of the 2-4 Line off of Point-3 to define Point-5 ectopia as 5', which converged with the Predictive/Forecasting Model and a lesser utilized (E)xtremly (AG)gressive (L)evel of (E)ntry strategy ("E.A.G.L.E.").
An overall price action analysis through Elliott Wave internal count also suggests that points 4 to 5' of the Geo was paced by a bearish 5-point impulsive morphology, as illustrated by points 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 in the chart. This entire impulse maintain an overall symmetry similar to that which defined the 1-2 Leg of the Geo - a larger ab = cd reciprocity, perhaps.
FORWARD STRATEGY - GEO'S OFFSET RULE, FIBONACCI:
Looking ahead, EURGBP offers a high-probability entry with limited downside potential. A prudent trader might consider a tolerance range based on a 1.414-FE cautionary range, using Elliott Wave's 3 and 4 termination levels as references (circa 0.68188) if and only if this range fits in his/her risk tolerance profile.
A less aggressive breed of trader might consider a BACA relative to the 1-3 Line before considering any similar long-term outlook.
The Geo's Off-Set Rule takes into consideration a geometric compensation in order to define the highest probability level of attainment as price reverses from the 5-plot completion. Here, a temporary adverse excursion relative to the core 5-point caused a 5-prime to be defined. Hence, in contrast to Mr. Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Wave consideration of a 1-4 Line as a Take-Profit target, the Geo proposes that, quite often, this 1-4 Line would be missed, but price will travel to the level of Point-4 instead, a phenomenon that seems to highlight an off-set adjustment in the overall deployment of the geometry.
OVERALL:
Bullish outlook. Cautionary stop-loss is at trader's discretion, although a standard 1.414-FE offers a solid backbone. Highest probability target is based on Geo's Off-Set Rule from Point-5' to Point-4.
Best,
David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA
08 NOV 2015 - There is no significant change that warrants any alteration in the WEEKLY chart.
Watch for that 1-3 Line as a trigger, or the recent top at 0.7491 on 12 OCT 2015.
David Alcindor
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24 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
For those glacial paced traders ... Posted this over a year ago (FEB 2015) ... Forecast remains intact and in force, as it eyes the 0.87683/0.86623 target range:
So, right now, you are at the crossing of TWO important levels: 1 - The structural break, nearing a higher high 2 - The break of the 2-4 Line.
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974 - Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
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30 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Forecast remains intact and in force, still eyeing 0.866/0.876 target defined last AUG 2015:
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974 - Alias: 4xForecaster
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05 JUL 2016 - Chart update / Tech-Note:
Best,
David Alcindor, alias: 4xForecaster
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12 JUL 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
As per forecast emitted on 13 AUG 2015, price remains bound to the 0.86623/0.87683 according to the Geo's OffSet Rule #2 aplication - This forecast remains true, intact and in force per Predictive/Forecasting Model as well:
Going forward, Predictive/Forecasting Model suggests significant strengthening in the GBP against EUR, accounting for the now-speculative decline of the pair towards (at the VERY least) the base of the recent rally.
Regards,
David Alcindor, CMT Affilaite #227974
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16 AUG 2016 - Chart Update: Target HIT!
Price hit target range ... Expect significant consolidation as the reversal is probable at these levels:
Thank you @roadtogo - The Predictive/Forecasting Model I discovered over the years (started back in 1997) is the real amazing piece in these predictive analyses and forecasts - David
ChimbOt
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Any update here David?
trviewmt
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Well, i'm really excited this pair and the target you suggested - because looks very profitable.
Entry: 0.7160
trviewmt
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Update please.
ChetanFX
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Any updates on this on lower timeframe?
crncy
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im impressed, good job!
iefan
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11 Jan 2015
EURGBP
Hi David, I know the larger Geo is long term bullish, but do you think it is likely that we will see a decline to Point 4 from here? Kind regards Iefan