SamKent

EUR/GBP Long Term Analysis

FX:EURGBP   Euro / British Pound
30 0 0
The EUR/GBP             is in the business of forming a triangle/flag pattern on the weekly chart. We're interested in following the developments of this pair for both fundamental as well as technical reasons.
Fundamentally, there's a significant divergence between the state of the economy in the EU and in the UK. The EU is in 0 growth mode, with strong deflationary tendencies and an ever increasing call for monetary easing. Meanwhile, the UK seems to be a mixed data case, with some more positive as well as some more negative news. There's still a lot of analysts who forecast the UK will be the 1st of the major economies to hike rates in the next couple of years.
So, fundamentally our bias for the pair has to be to the downside.
Technically, the pair is forming a long term flag/triangle pattern, which is generally a continuation pattern, meaning we should expect another leg up sometime in the upcoming future. We have marked our levels as such:
weekly close above 0.855 would make us bullish , aiming towards the round trip to the 0.9600 level.
Weekly close below 0.7700 would make us bearish , aiming towards the 0.700 level.

In general, we'd be looking for some confluence between fundamental, technical and momentum, hopefully generating a long term trade for us on the pair.
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