Kumowizard
Long

EURHUF - Get ready for re-enter Long

54 5 1
Dail: Slow Stoch bullish cross again, MACD still bullish

4 Hrs: We may see a triangle break soon. Based on the indicators, the probability of a break on top side is higher.
DMI             bullish with increasing ADX , Tenkan/Kijun medium buy signal within Kumo, Price trading in Kumo but if it breaks above, that will mean a trend break same time.

Strategy: Entry: 307 Limit Buy / 308,25 Stop Buy OCO             .
Initial stop at 306.
Upper resistances are at 310 and 312.

p.s.: USDHUF             is almost same pattern. The question is what you believe EURUSD             would do as next move.
Thank you for these posts and descriptions. I am getting to know more about ichimoku with your help :) so all the added text an details are welcome!
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Buy EURHUF and USDHUF immediately. NBH announcement this morning: they closed the 2 weeks NBH bill for internationals. From now they will use again 2 weeks depo, only local banks can place HUF cash for short term with the National Bank. They also decided to use FX reserves to serve foreign debt obligations. That means Hungary will issue less foreign ccy denominated bonds, while FX reserves will decrease a bit. On back of this decision spread between HUF denom bonds and EUR, USD denom bonds will widen finally.
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2use Kumowizard
Wow, thanx for the tip!
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No probs. There is no reason to keep HUF exposure any more. No interest rate, nor real rates, and central economy policy In Hungary clearly wants to see a weaker HUF. Look at ZAR, TRY, etc. They all had FX devaluation. In HUF nothing really. 5-7 % weaker ccy within 1 year is nothing. So if you were a large institution, a real money fund manager, what would you choose? Buy TRY bonds with a lot higher rates after they had a huge FX deval, or stick to sht HUF and HUF bonds?

One thing is interesting in Hungary on the bond mkt. The international holding of both HUF and foreign ccy denominated bonds are very high, that is true. But it is concentrated mostly in one particular investment fund's hand. That means the average (rest of) international investors have been underweight in Hungary. Question is what happens if this one fund once ever decides to decrease its huge overweight position in Hungary? I don't say they sell their portfolio (that would be technically impossible anyway looking at how illiquid HGB mkt is), but let's say would not re-invest their maturing bonds. Well, there is still one solution... NBH could buy that :-D.

Ah, and don't forget, Hungary will still have a substantial funding need, as its debt to GDP is not sinking (rather increasing from time to time). Certanly they have funding capacity, they can still channel local households' savings into tbill and bond market. Actually this is what they have just announced. They want bigger local participation in funding, and less external exposure. My view is this also means a slow decrease on the duration of outstanding debt. Long term this can carry further refinancing risks. First the curve will steepen up further, but later, espec if once they see some pickup in inflation, front end will blow up and bond mkt will see a huge bearish flattenning.

Anyway, I just wanna say that besides all the fundamental factors, comparisons, etc., these funding
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EURHUF is approaching 310 first target. Move stop higher to 307,25. TP is not yet recommended, as on Daily chart price just crosses the Kijun line, which is a further bullish signal. In case it breaks above 310 horizontal res., we can focus on 312,50 and 314 levels.

p.s.: recent volatility is quite low compared to previous months. I think it is managed a bit from the topside ;-). But time works for Bulls.
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