- picture is neutral: Price in the Kumo, stas between Tenkan and Kijun. Kijun is also located in the Kumo. Tenkan-Kijun-Senkou lines all stay together ard 310,50, which means this is a 52 weeks (1 year!) equilibrium price.
- Heikin Ashi is biased. After price failed to break above weekly cloud, it started to drift lower. Momentum is not very strong yet, but smoothed haDelta is below zero line.
- We have two major, multi-year uptrend lines matching each other around 302. We also have a stronger horizontal supp/res zone at 302-305.
- NBH doesn't want to see a too strong HUF in the long run (hehe which yould like to ee a strong ccy in these days anyway?), but I think they would not mind a 300-304 level closer to year end, as that would help to fulfil Hungary's end of year debt level criteria, defined by its constitution (!), which says gross debt can not grow YoY basis.
- After brief retest to Kumo and Kijun Sen, Heikin Ashi gave a signal yesterday and today.
- Possible target 305 and 302+, stop above 312,50.
I added to my EURHUF shorts today on break of 310.
I also think there is some relative value story going on in PLNHUF. Some mkt players enterred short there as Polish elections result will likely bring out PiS as winner to form Government. In that case they will fully implement Hungarian-style measures and steps, which will cause the Zloty underperform.