EURHUF - Simple, and being relatively easy to read recently
Daily: A longer term daily uptrend seems to be broken. Price below Kumo, Tenkan below Kijun and all averages point down, Chikou is below Price and also below Kumo now. DMI is bearish with increasing ADX. You see, even a ccy on which everybody was super bearish can suddenly reverse... with no carry at all. When something looks sht, just look ard, and you realise it is still better than PLN or CZK. Always believe to the charts!!! Never fight what is obvious.
To be honest I missed the initial 312,50-313 break, but as the Kumo was thick below the Price then, it retraced. So I opened a zero cost put structure selling 4 Months Call @316 vs buying 4 Months Put at 307,50.
Now Slow Stoch has become really oversold, and bearish momentum (price action) chilled on lower time frame, and EURHUF is approaching a key horizontal support/resistance zone ard 303,50-304,50. Also the long term weekly bullish trend line, and weekly Kumo bottom is close at 301, which should be a very strong resistance. A short termpull back to 309-309,50 is not impossible.
So I decided to Sell same notional amount 302 Put for same value date. This way if we stay below 316 until maturity, the position will be in profit anyway. (in case of a bullish reversal of course position would need some delta hedging between 316-318).
4 Hrs: Still bearish in all details, but in case of a pull back a retest tgt will be 307-308, or in case something goes wrong, and a counter trend against daily chart takes place it can be 310-311 as well.
Weekly: The weekly trend is still bullish until price stays above Senkou B and the long term trend line. In case at any point this trend breaks without making a new high, then a double (or triple) top pattern would get confirmation and next weekly bearish tgt could be 287-290. But for now looking purely at Ichimoku setup it is rather becoming neutral on the weekly chart.
Most important is 301!
To be honest I missed the initial 312,50-313 break, but as the Kumo was thick below the Price then, it retraced. So I opened a zero cost put structure selling 4 Months Call @316 vs buying 4 Months Put at 307,50.
Now Slow Stoch has become really oversold, and bearish momentum (price action) chilled on lower time frame, and EURHUF is approaching a key horizontal support/resistance zone ard 303,50-304,50. Also the long term weekly bullish trend line, and weekly Kumo bottom is close at 301, which should be a very strong resistance. A short termpull back to 309-309,50 is not impossible.
So I decided to Sell same notional amount 302 Put for same value date. This way if we stay below 316 until maturity, the position will be in profit anyway. (in case of a bullish reversal of course position would need some delta hedging between 316-318).
4 Hrs: Still bearish in all details, but in case of a pull back a retest tgt will be 307-308, or in case something goes wrong, and a counter trend against daily chart takes place it can be 310-311 as well.
Weekly: The weekly trend is still bullish until price stays above Senkou B and the long term trend line. In case at any point this trend breaks without making a new high, then a double (or triple) top pattern would get confirmation and next weekly bearish tgt could be 287-290. But for now looking purely at Ichimoku setup it is rather becoming neutral on the weekly chart.
Most important is 301!
