Kumowizard

EURHUF - A dip before rip?

FX_IDC:EURHUF   EURO / FORINT
27 1 2
Weekly:
- After breaking a multi year trendline and Kumo, Bears faced resistance at 297 and a correction started. By now Price reached the Kumo and slightly below Kijun Sen, Chikou Span hit past candles again. Ichimoku Setup turned back to neutral. 309,50 - 311,50 area should act as stronger support/resistance.
- It is the 8th week of the correction, Heikin Ashi signal is still bullish , but haDelta/SMA3 quantification started to show some exhaustion in the bullish momentum . Lower supp/resistances: 305,70 / 302,70 / 297

Daily:
- Ichimoku setup is still bullish , but Chikou Span faces a strong resistance in the thick past Kumo. Price is also very close to 309-311 resistance zone.
- Heikin Ashi started to show serious undecision close to resistance. For 5th consecutive days Price could not break above 309,50. haDelta/SMA3 has been drifting lower, close to zero line now.

In short term I think the upside for EURHUF             long is a bit limited, Price may dip to 302,50-304,50-305,50 supports.
On the other hand NBH as main policy maker made clear again they would be happy with rather a weaker (slowly weakening) HUF             in the long run. So who knows, maybe later this year we'll see a rip, but now we can see some dip.

To get some cover, I bought risk-reversal Put options already. I also sold some plain vanilla covered Calls.
No dip, just rip.... or R.I.P. HUF? Breaking News: NBH limits 2W depo facility

As I said multiple times before... policy makers want weaker HUF. They will get stg additional with this too: international bond holders to offload their HUF bonds.
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