This post is a follow up to my earlier warning today on Twitter.
- The ccy pair did not match the criteria of Kumo breakout in last few weeks. No higher high above Kumo.
- Heikin Ashi is about to make a reversal pattern (of course end of week will matter).
- Chance for a is increasing.
- lower supp/res level and possible pull back tgts: 309 / 307 / 305 / 301 (as ultimate trend support)
- setup turns back to neutral, Price attacks Kijun, 100 and flat Senkou B line
- Inner is broken, lower still acts as supp/res ard 310
- Heikin Ashi gave a sell signal yesterday, the signal is validated today.
The bias is increasingly , but we don't know wether or when it gains more momentum. Coming days will be very important, as FED decision may affect USDHUF which is trading ard critical last support of 276-277, and on Friday S&P will publish rating of Hungary. After 4 years spent in "Junk" category an upgrade to "investment grade" is not impossible.
All in all I would like to tell you it is not the level that really matters. If you see a good risk/reward signal, you have to sell it anyway. The question is how you size teh position. If you fee it may spike a bit higher, then don't sell too much now, just sell 1/3 or half of your planned size. Risk management is the most important, especially in case of these less liquid products. Xou have to know what is the level to stop, the level wher your idea proves to be wrong. So take that and volatility into account, and of course the amount you are willing to risk on this single one trade.
Btw, few days ago I sold some at 313,85 avg, but I was defenately too early, as the signal was not clear: there was no lower low on 4H and price did not break below daily Kijun Sen. My stop was at 315,40, of course I was taken out. Next day it started to move lower. So I started to re-enter again. Sh*t happens sometimes, but you have to know your risk, your limits, and get back into the trade again if you see a more reliable signal.