EURHUF - Local top. Pull back to come / Chart with Heiken Ashi

While the long term daily trend for EURHUF is still bullish , I see very high probability that we have the local top in ard 320, and EURHUF will start a correction lower soon. Let's check the levels.

Note: to filter volatility and noise I use Heiken Ashi candles this time.

Daily: Price reached trend channel top at/above 320. It was a decent and quick move from the 306 low, it has become overbought. Slow Stoch has been deverging for a few days and is signalling a sell, MACD is likely joining it with a sell signals too. These too signals together are very strong, and also Heiken Ashi candle is changing to Red. A pull back is very likely to happen within next few days.
First weak Bullish support is the Tenkan Sen at 317,33, the more important stronger supports are at Kijun Sen and the horizontal support/resistance line ard level 312,50-313. Noze that Senkou B is at that level too.
I think in short term 313 can be the corrective tgt .

4 Hrs: Perfect bullish channel , but Price action is coming back to neutral from bullish . Red Heiken Ashi candles have been printed in a row and Chikou Span is hitting Price candles. Theoretically this time frame should be still considered as bullish , but remember, always the higher time frame dominates, and the Daily is not really supporting further short term bullish momentum. The 4 Hrs Slow Stock is low, and as Price is at Kijun Sen, trendline, horizontal support and Senkou B together, I think it won't be able to break down for the first attempt. We have to see if 4 Hrs chart can print a higher high or not. If there will be a lower high, then the next try will likely be succesful.
Anyhow, the ultimate support is ard 317-317,50. If that breaks, the counter trend can start.

If I see any further sell signals on 4 Hrs time frame, I will post it for you.


Price touched Kumo yesterday, but due to short term oversold it spiked once more today up to 318. So far it looks like a Kijun and Kumo retest. If you see next sell signal on 4 Hrs, then sell it for 312,50-313 retracement target.
Hungarian Trade Ballance was out today, number was better than expected: 831,8M EUR vs 562,5M EUR exp (prev. 351M)
I do not see any structural flows that could send HUF a lot weaker from these levels. Trade ballance and current account surplus should help the HUF strength further.
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