EUR/JPY Price Outlook – Trade Setup

📊 Technical Structure
EURJPY On the 60-minute (60M) chart, EUR/JPY has entered a corrective phase, softening toward the 183.55 area. Despite the recent decline, the overall bullish tone for the cross remains intact. The price is currently testing a crucial horizontal Support Zone between 183.43 – 183.48.
The technical structure shows a formidable Resistance Zone situated at 183.94 – 183.98. While further consolidation is possible, a successful defence of the current support floor could trigger a rebound toward the immediate resistance levels.
Short-term bias: Bullish while holding above 183.43.
Key Resistance: 183.94 – 183.98.
Key Support: 183.43 – 183.49.

🎯 Trade Setup (Buy-on-Support Scenario)
Entry Zone: 183.43 – 183.49 (Positioning for a rebound from horizontal support).
Stop Loss: 183.37 (Placed below the initial support level).
Take Profit 1: 183.94
Take Profit 2: 184.98
Risk–Reward Ratio: Approx. 1:4.38
📌 Invalidation: A decisive hourly candle close below 183.10 would invalidate the bullish thesis, suggesting a shift in sentiment toward a deeper correction.

🌐 Macro Background
The EUR/JPY cross is navigating a complex fundamental landscape driven by safe-haven demand and hawkish central bank signals:
Gulf Tensions: Iran has escalated its operations, firing advanced ballistic missiles toward Israeli cities, which has boosted safe-haven flows into the Japanese Yen (JPY).
ECB Hawkishness: ECB members, including Peter Kazimir, have signaled that a rate hike may be closer than previously thought if the war raises inflation expectations.
Market Pricing: Traders have accelerated pricing for ECB tightening, with markets now anticipating a hike as early as June.
Economic Impact: New quarterly forecasts from the ECB will begin to incorporate the economic fallout from the war in Iran.

🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance Zone: 183.94 – 183.98
Support Zone: 183.48 – 183.43.

📌 Trade Summary
EUR/JPY is currently pressured by geopolitical safe-haven flows, yet the broader technical outlook remains constructive. The focus remains on the 183.48 support floor to maintain the bullish vibe.
Preferred strategy: Seek long opportunities near the 183.43 support zone while maintaining a strict stop below 183.37, targeting a retest of the 184.90 resistance level.

⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Financial markets involve significant risk; proper risk and position management are essential.