$EUR vs $JPY - Lesson: Occult Geo & Wolfe Wave #EBC #BOJ #forex

FX:EURJPY   Euro / Japanese Yen

Following is a TENTATIVE delineation of a Wolfe Wave (always take your lessons from the author, so best if you looked into Mr. Bill Wolfe's http://www.WolfeWave.com site). As usual, what I define in geometry is simply background visual support to the Predictive/Forecasting Model, which stands at the foreground. The Model is defining a probable target, as follows:

TG-Lo = 104.785 - 02 JUN 2015

Hence, the geometry is simply an overlay to give a rationale to the Model, using what I believe to be the most consistent methodology offered through Wolfe Wave . Although I have not received any lessons from Mr. Bill Wolfe or his site, I have looked into the Wolfe Wave's pattern through the "eyes" of a distinct approach, which makes the analysis no greater or lesser than the lessons one should seek from Mr. Bill Wolfe , who warns his students to beware of any interpretations, such as mine.

Looking at the larger Wolfe Wave ("WW"), you will appreciate that this is simply a wedge at first sight. However, there are other subtleties that WW rests upon. What I have further developed in my own interpretation of the WW would be referred to as the "Geo", based on internal geometries which Mr. Bill Wolfe has discarded as irrelevant, believing that his WW stands independent of any Fibonacci values, internal geometries or Elliott Wave constructs - This is something I have come to disagree, especially when using my Predictive/Forecasting Model as a guiding hand.

Feel free to peruse other examples where I have emphasized these differences, wherein Fibonacci values, internal geometries or Elliott Wave constructs have clearly aided in defining the geometric             points (1, 2, 3, 4 and 5) of the core Wolfe Wave pattern. In any case, I recommend that you peruse Mr. Bill Wolfe site (www.WolfeWave.com) to appreciate the basic construction of the WW.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


David Alcindor

Comment: 26 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains intent on bearish tack, carving out lower-lows:

David Alcindor
Comment: 06 JAN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As per forecast, price continues to decline. Original forecast eyeing 104.785 from last June 2015 remains distant but in force, whereas more proximal targets are nearing completion ... Interim reactive rally is expected to be limited, and any new structural low will only invigorate bears' strength ... Bearish outlook at the L/T level:


David Alcindor
Comment: 25 JAN 2016 - Chart Update:

Price remains bearish, with targets intact and in force:

David Alcindor
Comment: 25 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price hit the first of two Quant-Targets defined last July 2015, so expect a limited upside retracement here - Highlighted is the upper border of a bearish channel, which is likely to lend resistance:

Two important technical notes:

1 - A break above that channel upper border should keep bears on their guard, as this border line would be well used as a dynamic Stop-Loss.

2 - I have added a Qual-Target today as TG-Lox = 96.812 - While the more proximal TG-Lo = 104.785 defined last June 2015 remains intact, the Predictive/Forecasting Model suggests a probable attainment into the depth defined by TG-Lox.


David Alcindor
Comment: 29 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price continues to carve lower-lows. Chance of a significant retracement diminishes, whereas bearish targets per Predictive/Forecasting Model remain intact and in force:


David Alcindor
Comment: 03 APR 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As forecast, price rallied; Now faces structural resistance (129.667/130.285 range) as illustrated in the following chart:

Predominant trend remains BEARISH with Quant-Target TG-2 = 119.455 (defined 15 JUL 2015) and Qual-Targets TG-Lo = 104.785 (defined 02 JUN 2015) and TG-Lox = 96.812 (defined 25 FEB 2016) remaining pending.


David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate
Thank you David for the latest update. Much appreciated. The price 132.229 in pink in your latest chart...does it have any significance?
+1 Reply
Hello @ananora23 - That price level represents a structure-low that was less-likely to be challenged. As I followed that chart from lat June and July 2015, I used that level as a probable structure AFTER price would fall below it ... This is what I have called a "Transmural", which is defined as a prior structure followed by a significant counter-swing. Once price completes that counter-swing, it will likely return to that level "across the visual wall" (hence: "trans" + "mural") that has been drawn by THIS most recent price action.

Feel free to Google "transmural 4xForecaster" for more examples on this concept ... It's really a VERY simple one that works quite consistently for counter-trend traders.

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
ananora23 4xForecaster
Great David I will research Transmural. Many many thanks!
+1 Reply
ananora23 4xForecaster
Hello David, and here I am again in awe of the precision with which your transmural price level worked. Hat's off. I am beyond intrigued but will focus on learning your technique and style as soon as I get some things out of the way. In the meantime gazillion likes to all your charts!!!!
+2 Reply
@ananora23 - Thank you for your kind compliments. They are much appreciated - David
+2 Reply
09 SEP 2015 - Chart Update: ... Blip ...

Not sure what happened to FXCM's data, but they posted this erroneous data ... Forecast remains in force:

David Alcindor
+3 Reply
takefal 4xForecaster

DAVID please commented on this diagram a) correctly can put it as target point 4? and b) the formation ABCDE, is correct and expected?

Thank you.
+1 Reply
Hello @takefal - So sorry I had not seen your question - David
+1 Reply
15 JUL 2015 - Tech-Note:

Watch for this possible pathway:

1 - Two numerical targets are probable levels of support standing against further decline to TG-Lo

2 - Point-4 offers a level of resistance on the top-side of the range (range being the space comprised between Point-4 and TG-1

3 - Bears remain in charge; Predictive Model remains intent on TG-Lo

Understandably, this is a L/T chart (weekly), but the Model remains sensitive to its own coordinates, regardless of time and volume.

+3 Reply
15 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
$EURJPY continues to roll since forecast at Point-4; Bears in charge; Target intact:

$EUR $JPY #ECB #BOJ #forex

David Alcindor
+3 Reply
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