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\$EUR vs \$JPY - Lesson: Occult Geo & Wolfe Wave #EBC #BOJ #forex

FX:EURJPY   Euro Fx/Japanese Yen
1806 17
Friends,

Following is a TENTATIVE delineation of a Wolfe Wave (always take your lessons from the author, so best if you looked into Mr. Bill Wolfe's http://www.WolfeWave.com site). As usual, what I define in geometry is simply background visual support to the Predictive/Forecasting Model, which stands at the foreground. The Model is defining a probable target, as follows:

TG-Lo = 104.785 - 02 JUN 2015

Hence, the geometry is simply an overlay to give a rationale to the Model, using what I believe to be the most consistent methodology offered through Wolfe Wave . Although I have not received any lessons from Mr. Bill Wolfe or his site, I have looked into the Wolfe Wave's pattern through the "eyes" of a distinct approach, which makes the analysis no greater or lesser than the lessons one should seek from Mr. Bill Wolfe , who warns his students to beware of any interpretations, such as mine.

Looking at the larger Wolfe Wave ("WW"), you will appreciate that this is simply a wedge at first sight. However, there are other subtleties that WW rests upon. What I have further developed in my own interpretation of the WW would be referred to as the "Geo", based on internal geometries which Mr. Bill Wolfe has discarded as irrelevant, believing that his WW stands independent of any Fibonacci values, internal geometries or Elliott Wave constructs - This is something I have come to disagree, especially when using my Predictive/Forecasting Model as a guiding hand.

Feel free to peruse other examples where I have emphasized these differences, wherein Fibonacci values, internal geometries or Elliott Wave constructs have clearly aided in defining the geometric             points (1, 2, 3, 4 and 5) of the core Wolfe Wave pattern. In any case, I recommend that you peruse Mr. Bill Wolfe site (www.WolfeWave.com) to appreciate the basic construction of the WW.

Best,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA

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Twitter:
@4xForecaster

LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
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Comment: 26 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains intent on bearish tack, carving out lower-lows:

David Alcindor
Comment: 06 JAN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As per forecast, price continues to decline. Original forecast eyeing 104.785 from last June 2015 remains distant but in force, whereas more proximal targets are nearing completion ... Interim reactive rally is expected to be limited, and any new structural low will only invigorate bears' strength ... Bearish outlook at the L/T level:

Best,

David Alcindor
Comment: 25 JAN 2016 - Chart Update:

Price remains bearish, with targets intact and in force:

David Alcindor
Comment: 25 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price hit the first of two Quant-Targets defined last July 2015, so expect a limited upside retracement here - Highlighted is the upper border of a bearish channel, which is likely to lend resistance:

Two important technical notes:

1 - A break above that channel upper border should keep bears on their guard, as this border line would be well used as a dynamic Stop-Loss.

2 - I have added a Qual-Target today as TG-Lox = 96.812 - While the more proximal TG-Lo = 104.785 defined last June 2015 remains intact, the Predictive/Forecasting Model suggests a probable attainment into the depth defined by TG-Lox.

Best,

David Alcindor
Comment: 29 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price continues to carve lower-lows. Chance of a significant retracement diminishes, whereas bearish targets per Predictive/Forecasting Model remain intact and in force:

Best,

David Alcindor
Comment: 03 APR 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As forecast, price rallied; Now faces structural resistance (129.667/130.285 range) as illustrated in the following chart:

Predominant trend remains BEARISH with Quant-Target TG-2 = 119.455 (defined 15 JUL 2015) and Qual-Targets TG-Lo = 104.785 (defined 02 JUN 2015) and TG-Lox = 96.812 (defined 25 FEB 2016) remaining pending.

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
In the very short term it seems appropiate , we could be in wave 5
Reply
Realisto_FX
Yes - Also, per Off-Set Rule, Point-4 is acting as a solid support. So, a decline from its corresponding price will require a significant bearish push.

David
Reply
02 JUN 2015 - TECH-NOTE:

A quick note on the Geo (i.e.: on internal structures I have defined as rules) and on geometric correspondences:

1 - The 1-2 Leg is best defined as a reciprocal, symmetrical ab = cd (PINK in the most recent Geo).

2 - The 2-3 Leg is the most complex geometric construction, best defined by a Double-ZZ or Triple-ZZ in Elliott Wave terms

3 - The 3-4 Leg is most often a simple ZZ

The Fibonacci values most relevant to define Point-5 should cluster such that:

1 - The 1-2 Leg x 1.414 or 1.618 = Point-5

2 - The 2-3 Leg x 1.272 or 1.313 or 1.414 = Point-5

3 - The 3-4 Leg x 1.131 or 1.272 or 1.313 = Point-5

Looking at correspondence within the current chart, some might appreciate that the 1-4 Line of the larger WW remains in parallel to that of the most recent 1-4 Line. I believe that these lines are similar to what I have defined in prior analyses as MOMENTAL lines. In any case, these lines are relevant to our understanding of the Geo to which it submits itself, as they will define the "Tunneling" properties of the Geo (look at prior analyses where I specifically define this "Tunneling" concept ... Google "Tunneling + 4xforecaster + tradingview" for a list of charts where this concept is detailed).

Another concept that distinguishes the Geo from the WW is that of "Geo-Anchor". By Geo-Anchor, I am referring to the inflection in price, typically within the 2-3 Leg (the longest or most complex in Elliott Wave terms), where the 1-4 Line would find a resting point ("Geo-Anchor") so that its slope remains the closes to Point-5 - This is simply used as a way to define the HIGHEST probability of TARGET HIT. In contrast, using the 1-4 Line strictly off of Point-4 is at times difficult (as there may be some confusion as to where the Point-4 might rest when price validates the 2-4 Line multiple times, for instance).

I any case, this \$EURJPY is but one example I am sharing in which the Wolfe Wave concept is elaborated to such a level that should be distinct and defined into a different type of pattern, which you will often read as "Geo". Hence, whenever "Geo" is used, it is to clarify a clear departure from Mr. Bill Wolfe's pattern.

Another Geo feature which has led to its own rule is that of "Off-Set Rule" for targeting.

In simplest terms, Point-5 can at time be found outside of its 1-3 Line. In which case, its position is "exotic", and can also be defined as Point-5-prime (5') or Point-5-second (5''). By simply cut/pasting the 2-4 Line and originating it at Point-3, a 5' is defined once price hits that line as it moves "too far beyond" what would have been Point-5 along the 1-3 Line. A similar 5'' wpuld be define when the 2-4 Line is defined off of Point-1, and price where to move "too far, further off".

I use the " ... " quotation marks here, simply because the Geo does not believe that such excursions in price are random, but are integral to the 1-2-3-4-5 core geometry. However, when these exotic Points-5 occur, it is worth looking at a larger engulfing Wolfe Wave or Geo.

The "Off-Set Rule" simply states that:

1 - If price reverses from Point-5, the highest probability target is along the 1-4 Line (this is Mr. Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Wave definition)

2 - If price reverses from Point-5' (Point-5-prime), the highest probability target is at the price level of Point-4

3 - If price reverses from Point-5'' (Point-5-second), the highest probability target is at the price level of Point-3

OVERALL, the weekly chart I posted remains a speculative projection. Price could leap upwards, or submit itself to the rough geometric contours I have ascribed in the chart. Gist is more important than precision here, as we are looking for the general motion or likeness of a familiar and remarkable consistent pattern, which is expressed in the Wolfe Wave. What I have added are simply geometric and technical elements that only make sense to me at first usage. You are welcome to learn from these, but as in the case of Scott Carney's patterns (www.HarmonicTrader.com and lessons: www.HarmonicTrading.com), or Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave lessons (www.ElliottWave.com), one should always start to learn from the actual source.

I say this to keep you on your guard that what has worked for me may not make sense to you, and that my elaboration of the Wolve Wave are based on internalized lessons from the market, as well as extrapolations from a Predictive/Forecasting Model (algorithm) which can only remain unshared. So, much of what I teach strives to be as objective as possible (ab = cd symmetrical reciprocities, Geo-Anchors, "Tunneling" and "Off-Set Rule"), but a firm foundation is best built upon the lesson obtained directly from the authors. For this reason, I recommend that you visit these sites and drink from the sources (these lessons are completely FREE), and not from a pool of regurgitations from students imposing a fee and yet getting it wrong ... I include myself as one of the potential wrong sources as far as Wolfe Wave teaching goes, as I have not received any formal lesson from Mr. Wolfe himself, and I will not claim to be either an expert in patterns (although I have a few proprietary patters: Euclid, Janus, Great White, Alternative Shark, as well as some occult market geometry concepts, such as the Euclidean Module, ... etc) or even remotely an Elliott Wave trader.

However, I could easily refer you to some expert in these fields upon request - Pattern Trading: Akil Stokes; Structural Analysis: Jason Stapleton; Elliott Wave: DanV ... Wolfe Wave: go to the site.

Best,

David Alcindor
Reply
what s price?
cut loss?
Tp?
Reply
Saowalak Tuff
Hello @Saowalak Tuff, I am not sure I understand your question: "what s price?"

David
Reply
15 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

\$EURJPY remains subdued to Geo's alternate 1-4 Line (i.e.: Geo-Anchor based, so far). This larger WEEKLY view suggests a nascent geometry that would favor decline to levels define along the geometry's 1-3 Line.

David Alcindor
Reply
15 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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\$EURJPY continues to roll since forecast at Point-4; Bears in charge; Target intact:

\$EUR \$JPY #ECB #BOJ #forex
----------

David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster
Nice one as ever David; I got in after recent retracement few days ago; Hamed.
Reply
15 JUL 2015 - Tech-Note:

Watch for this possible pathway:

1 - Two numerical targets are probable levels of support standing against further decline to TG-Lo

2 - Point-4 offers a level of resistance on the top-side of the range (range being the space comprised between Point-4 and TG-1

3 - Bears remain in charge; Predictive Model remains intent on TG-Lo

Understandably, this is a L/T chart (weekly), but the Model remains sensitive to its own coordinates, regardless of time and volume.

David
Reply
09 SEP 2015 - Chart Update: ... Blip ...

Not sure what happened to FXCM's data, but they posted this erroneous data ... Forecast remains in force:

David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster

DAVID please commented on this diagram a) correctly can put it as target point 4? and b) the formation ABCDE, is correct and expected?

Thank you.
Reply
takefal
Hello @takefal - So sorry I had not seen your question - David
Reply
Thank you David for the latest update. Much appreciated. The price 132.229 in pink in your latest chart...does it have any significance?
Thanks!!!
Nora
Reply
ananora23
Hello @ananora23 - That price level represents a structure-low that was less-likely to be challenged. As I followed that chart from lat June and July 2015, I used that level as a probable structure AFTER price would fall below it ... This is what I have called a "Transmural", which is defined as a prior structure followed by a significant counter-swing. Once price completes that counter-swing, it will likely return to that level "across the visual wall" (hence: "trans" + "mural") that has been drawn by THIS most recent price action.

Feel free to Google "transmural 4xForecaster" for more examples on this concept ... It's really a VERY simple one that works quite consistently for counter-trend traders.

David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster
Great David I will research Transmural. Many many thanks!
Nora.
Reply
4xForecaster
Hello David, and here I am again in awe of the precision with which your transmural price level worked. Hat's off. I am beyond intrigued but will focus on learning your technique and style as soon as I get some things out of the way. In the meantime gazillion likes to all your charts!!!!
Nora.
Reply
ananora23
@ananora23 - Thank you for your kind compliments. They are much appreciated - David
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