Last week I viewed the daily chart
as indicating accumulation of EUR over JPY. Stepping back a bit it looks like the market is rather looking to go short. My arguments for this are as follows using the Weekly chart:
- We reached a market top with strong climax buying. As for my evaluation of the USDJPY it looks as if the market is accumulating JPY https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/a/AGrp7wX1_171_121.png
- The down moves are showing signs of strength and increasing volume with the pull backs on no demand candles.
- The Ichimoku lines are all pointing down on the weekly chart with the angle increasing indicating increasing momentum.
- We have reached a key resistance are at 120 with strong momentum going into this area.
- We have just broken a wedge form on the daily chart going into this resistance area .
- We are at the bottom of the pitchfork and a break of this would indicate a strong move down.
- The weekly 50 and 200 sma have just crossed down.
- The "TDI" short, medium and longer term sentiment is below 50% and moving down since 2013 but has still not reached the oversold region on the "TDI".
- We have just moved through the 50% fib level of the previous up move
Using this my bias is to go short. However, a bounce of the bottom of the channel could still happen which would mean a move back to the previous resistance and the kumo. If the resistance levels are broken I expect a strong move to the market base of the previous up move and 88.6% fib level at 100. This should also coincide with a strong move in the USDJPY
as this looks more like the market is accumulating JPY.