The EURJPY is very interesting at the moment and in an extension. On the daily time frame I count an ABC structure lower where wave C is currently in progress.
As I mentioned an impulse has 5 waves including the inner waves for an extension results in 9, 13, 17 waves etc. Since we see many overlaps it is unlikely that the EURJPY is in an impulse lower. Therefore I favor a correction lower by means of a wave C.
However a correction has 3 waves and including inner waves for an extension results in 7, 11, 15 etc.
This is 'among other reasons' why I favor at least one more leg lower, I like to see a corrective structure in line with a corrective extended wave count. This is why I'll be looking for a reversal soon for a new daily low.
For an example of my projection of GBPAUD that had a similar structure see link below:
It is crucial to understand that I'm not saying it has to make a new low, it will only increase the probability of a succesfull break out once the correction is over. It also does not mean that it will only make 1 leg lower if it decides to move lower. The point is probability, short term the highest probability from my point of view is a new low.
If we see otherwise I will adjust, in both cases updates will follow.
If you like my analyses and explanations of how I rationalize the market follow me for updates.
Once my website is (finally) ready I will explain my approach in detail because structure is leading whether we like it or not. All trading strategies are a way to trade structure so understanding structure is key for every professional trader.
updates will follow
I already closed 50% as mentioned yesterday. However I think there is more to come but we need a consolidation before there might before I consider selling again.
Last week I answered a question of BusinessInMotion:
'The Yen pairs moved very fast and especially when looking at last week's range, add to that the fact that this pair almost erased the whole move of March within the week. It is therefore likely that the Yen pairs need a break soon so they can consolidate. That's what I'll be looking for before I decide what my next trade will be. We see the first corrective leg in progress from the zone you mention so let's see whether it settles. Selling in this zone is not what I like to do.'
Now let's see whether my levels make sense (black horizontal dotted lines) for a possible target for wave C. I like to see at least 3 waves and then reconsider what's next. However short term I'll be looking for a buy continuation after a consolidation to target that zone.
i agree that we are in a C wave and we have already 50 % retracement of the large impulse but this was the easy part ;)
i also agree with your wave count of 10 in developement
i find it realy usefull that you label your wave counts that helps a lot to read the structure better in my point of view !!
only 1 question why has the Wave A a 5 wave count ?
if it is corrective is it valid to have 5 waves?
Thanks a lot Tim your the best !!