EURJPY: a potential bearish bat scenario

FX:EURJPY   Euro / Japanese Yen
The Yen has been gaining against the Euro last week in the run up to today’s general elections of the world third largest economy. This was mainly caused by the drop in oil prices, leading to a higher demand for save haven currencies like the Yen. This strengthening weighed on this pair.

Polls meanwhile show the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is likely to win today, thereby renewing its mandate for economic and fiscal reform (Abenomics) aimed at fighting deflation. So there are both strengthening and weakening forces working on the Yen. Monday the market is sure to react to all this, please keep in mind that volatility will be especially high if the LDP does NOT win the majority.

Meanwhile, on the technical side, we don’t have an actionable trade yet, but there is something to keep an eye on. We may have a bearish bat forming in the hourly timeframe of this pair. In its bare essence, technical analysis is a pattern recognition probability game and harmonics are always a high probability reason to enter a trade.

I am obviously not jumping the gun on this one, it is far from completed and we are still early in the lifecycle of this potential trade. I could either justify it or reject it, depending on how things play out. Price did briefly move past B on its path from C to D, so there is promise, but for now I will observe how this pair opens on Monday. Should the bearish bat eventually finish, I will sell on the completion of it.

UPDATE: The pattern never completed so no trade was entered here.

You don´t need to be a weatherman to know which way the wind blows - B. Dylan