Last week my bias on this pair was bearish and that hasn't changed. Unfortunately I was stopped out due to a pullback which tested some key areas. I'm now entering in short again as I believe there is a good opportunity as a result of a couple of confluences.
Weekly A clear rejection off monthly resistance at 124.00 as well as a hammer, spinning top and doji. Last week, a bearish engulfing has taken out 3 weeks of previous price action and has also closed below weekly support at 122.00
Daily There are clear signs of exhaustion on the daily chart with long wicks tapping monthly resistance and unable to close beyond daily area of resistance around 123.27 - signs of selling pressure. We've been able to close below weekly support and retest it forming a gravestone doji.
H4 On the 4 hour chart, we've completed a lower high after breaking our trend line, daily resistance as well as weekly resistance. An evening star candle formation is giving high probability of a reversal to the downside. We also have a confluence with price being capped by the 32% fib level. The last candle before market close was a bearish marubozu indicating significant selling momentum. If we were to go lower, our CTL has also been broken on the 1 hour.