Title says it all. Big risk being how will JPY open tomorrow considering Abenomics is now approved by the Japanese + the Tankan survey tomorrow.
Fundamentals aside, technically EURJPY shows good signs of a quick short trade. Considering the entry is quite some pips away from Friday's close, any upside gaps should be safe for the entry.
Watch out for 148 zone for any bearish candlestick patterns as it forms a short term resistance level.
Good luck!
Comments
manijeh.kazemi.33
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nice analysis thank you
justatrader
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Cheers!! Analysis is quite simple actually. Just check on the weekly charts on Sat or Sunday and pick out ones with reliable candlestick patterns and then move on to lower time frames and see if any chart patterns or price action points to a trade in the same direction as the weekly candle and that's it
For this week, there was EURJPY and CADJPY (but didn't have time to publish that chart).
Claudisimo
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Going well
justatrader
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Trade should be out of the woods after 146.628 is cleared. Then its safe to trade at break even+ few pips targeting 145.8 and 144.5 Hopefully a bounce from the first target back to 147.277 should give another chance to add to shorts. If trade doesn't hit 144.5 ahead of FOMC, then its best to close out to book profits at market or trade at BE just to be on the safe side.
Claudisimo
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Isn't the stop loss a bit too tight?
justatrader
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The SL placed is a technical stop. If you notice the past price action, the SL is just a few pips above the previous high (after price bounced from support inside the channel). Therefore, should price action close above the SL level, it would invalidate the short idea and would see a push to the upside.
Claudisimo
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If we consider the last downside as an elliott wave with a 5th wave subdivided in 5 waves it might not reach 144.5. I think that 144.7 is a bit safer. I'm not an expert anyway, I'm just asking how sure you are that it will reach that point.
Anyway, great analysis, thank you! I caught it in the right time and I'm earning a lot of pips :D
justatrader
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I'm not into EW's so hard to comment on that aspect. ideally, at this point in time, the first trade should have been exited after price reached TP1 @ 145.8 (127%) and the second trade should be either at BE or moved a bit more to lock in partial profits to cover any commissions or -ve swaps.
With flags, price always bounces from 127% back to 100% and then drops down to 161.8%. But this isn't the rule all the time, hence the concept of initiating 2 trades. Refer to this EURUSD chart I published long time back where you can see how price reversed from 127% (tradingview.com/v/SO1qzpK0/)
Considering the market volatility today, its hard to comment. I exited both my positions a while back and have been scalping the moves on USDJPY, counter trend, targeting the bounce from 127% back to 100% levels.
Claudisimo
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Damn, closed too late. Still won something
justatrader
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And here's USDJPY chart where price bounced back to 100% from 127% and then declined to 161 levels
tradingview.com/v/ivbg6xNf/