if history repeats itself, and it usually does.... im waiting for a setup on the lower time frames to enter the trade. looking for a minimum of 400 pips on this one, going to to targeting the green channel marker.
Comments
isomorph
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You are dreaming, man. With the just released news of massive easing by the BOJ, no one wants to hold yen, ergo all yen crosses are rocketing up. Unless the Japanese government says something else to curb yen selling, the sky is the limit at this point.
Saoldric
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dreaming? maybe, but i dont trade news. I trade what i see, and at 140 there is quite abit of resistance. my last trade on EURUSD turned out really well, someone thought i was crazy then too...tradingview.com/v/QCcl7YFc/
isomorph
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Wow, nice trade indeed on EU. As re EJ, I didn't mean to rain on your parade. Actually, I should have asked you what your time horizon for this prediction is. Because I am such a short term trader, I thought you meant over the next week it will drop 400 pips, which I find highly unlikely. Now, if you meant it will drop back 400 pips between Nov 1 and Dec 31, then I have nothing to say as I can't see the future that far ahead and you could very well be right. Or not.
Yes, there is indeed a clear channel action and market closed at the top of it on Friday and is close to a bunch of other resistance levels. So, I will agree with you only on the following: giving the volatility stretch, it is reasonable to expect a pullback, a dip of some sort where buyers will emerge. BUT just because we have a channel and the market is overstretched, does this mean that price will drop from here (140.56) to 136.56 (400 pips)?
It could but personally I find it improbable because of central bank action. Unless something changes in the commitment of the BoJ and GPIF to reallocate funds on the massive scale they announced, the probable play is Yen weakness and USD strength, as well as Nikkei strength. Now, if UJ keeps on going up, and EU keeps on dropping, what is EJ going to do? Not move very much as the size of flows in EU and UJ are some of the largest in the FX market.
BUT if EU has a contra-trend retrace move up, and UJ either doesn't dip much or even keeps rising, even at a slow rate, that will further support EJ in the coming week. Problem is that EJ is a synthetic, ie influenced by what happens with EU and UJ flows.
Anyway, first we need to define what is the time duration of the interval during which you foresee a 400 pip drop from current levels. 1 week? 2 weeks? 1 or 2 months? 6 months? 1 year?
Saoldric
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yeah, i probably should have specified what my time horizon was... the channel looks like its broken and there is no longer a trade here. Will wait to see if there is a significant pull back to this area later and maybe will become a buying opportunity.
Saoldric
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risking ~30 pips or so for at least 400, id say its worth the dream, because sometimes dreams pay off.
garion00
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I have to agree with you Saoldric. Just the fact that everyone thinks usd/jpy is going to the moon makes me want to put on a short. eur/jpy looks like a good setup. Thanks!
Mars_Kaydir
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I don't see a sell as yet, If it took out 140 resistance with so little effort, I would say we should be good for a few more pips up. If we break 141 then given time we head to 145 before the turn back
garion00
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I would agree. I'm not in a long-term sell just yet. It will probably gap up on Sunday. I think that would be fade at least to the daily pivot. Wish I could predict the future, but that seems like a good play to me.
isomorph
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Yes, true. But here is a picture worth a 1000 words: my monthly chart. In all honesty, when you look at it, does it look more probable that the next monthly candle is going to be down or up?
Saoldric
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great chart, at this point it seems likely that strength will continue. 155 is a great looking target.