EUR/JPY | 3 Nov 2025
PLAN ID: EURJPY-V4-SW-002
Analysis Timestamp : 03 Nov 2025
⸻
PLAN OVERVIEW
• Category: Swing
• Trade Type: Pullback → HTF Continuation
• Direction: BUY (from discount zone within bullish structure)
• Confidence: 82 % (HTF uptrend + JPY fundamental weakness + D1/H4 confluence)
• Min R:R: 1 : 3 (to TP2)
• Status: ✅ VALID
⸻
MACRO ALIGNMENT NOTE
• Trend: WITH (W1 and D1 bullish — JPY still fundamentally weak due to BoJ policy stance)
• Macro Bias: WITH (pro-risk tone and JPY funding outflows support EUR carry)
• Implication: Focus on buying dips near discount zones unless BoJ signals hawkish shift.
⸻
LEVELS CARD (Quick Action)
Primary Setup (Higher Probability) → BUY
• Entry 01: 176.90 – 177.20 (H4 OB + liquidity below short-term lows + D1 discount retracement)
• Entry 02 (Secondary Zone): 176.20 – 176.35 (deeper H4 demand / EQH sweep zone)
• Stop Loss: 175.95 (below H4 OB base + invalid point)
• TP1: 178.40 • TP2: 179.20 • TP3: 180.10
• Order: Pending – Pre-validated ✅ (expire end of NY session or on invalid/red event)
• Session: London / NY continuation
⸻
EXECUTION CHECKLIST
1. News Blackout Gate – 15 min pre / 60 min post JPY or EUR red events.
2. Price must tap zone during preferred session.
3. Trigger confirmation = H1/H4 engulf or BOS required.
4. Execute defined order type.
5. Partial at TP1 → SL BE → trail by structure.
6. Exit on invalidation.
7. Skip if no trigger.
8. EMA stack flat at zone = Skip.
⸻
FUNDAMENTALS & NEWS
• CB Bias / OIS: BoJ maintains YCC + ultra-loose policy; ECB neutral-tight.
• Key Data (7 d): Japan CPI slower; EU PMIs stabilized → supportive for EUR.
• Cross-Asset Sentiment: DXY soft; UST yields steady; risk assets bid.
• Positioning: COT shows JPY short build / EUR net flat.
• Macro Lean: EUR modestly bullish vs JPY carry play continues.
⸻
MARKET MAP
• D1 Structure: Higher-highs > 176 confirm ongoing up-trend.
• H4 Structure: Minor pullback into discount zone after BOS up.
• Liquidity Pools: Below 176.80 & 176.20 / Above 178.80 & 179.60.
• Value Zones: Premium = 179.00 + / Discount = 176.80 – 176.20.
• Play Type: Pullback to OB → Continuation trend play.
⸻
RISK & MONEY MANAGEMENT
• Risk per idea 1–2 %; basket cap 2 %.
• Min R:R ≥ 1:3 to TP2.
• ATR filter satisfied (H1 ATR ≈ 0.25 vs avg spread < 0.03).
• Trail by structure after TP1 partial.
⸻
CONFIDENCE (ONE SENTENCE)
82 % — Bullish HTF trend with fundamental JPY weakness and clean technical discount retracement alignment.
⸻
FINAL EXECUTION STRATEGY / PERSONAL NOTE
• Primary Buy trigger active if 176.90–177.20 zone taps during London session with H1 engulf.
• Last-Candle Audit @ Zone: Engulf or Pin → execute on close; else stand aside.
• Stay flat if BoJ policy comment causes JPY spike or H4 closes below 176.00.
• Zone Status: Primary Fresh Tap Pending | Alternate Valid Retest Pending.
• Execute only with confirmation — no anticipation.
⸻
POST-TRADE JOURNAL (End of Plan)
Outcome + lesson → to be filled after execution.
PLAN ID: EURJPY-V4-SW-002
Analysis Timestamp : 03 Nov 2025
⸻
PLAN OVERVIEW
• Category: Swing
• Trade Type: Pullback → HTF Continuation
• Direction: BUY (from discount zone within bullish structure)
• Confidence: 82 % (HTF uptrend + JPY fundamental weakness + D1/H4 confluence)
• Min R:R: 1 : 3 (to TP2)
• Status: ✅ VALID
⸻
MACRO ALIGNMENT NOTE
• Trend: WITH (W1 and D1 bullish — JPY still fundamentally weak due to BoJ policy stance)
• Macro Bias: WITH (pro-risk tone and JPY funding outflows support EUR carry)
• Implication: Focus on buying dips near discount zones unless BoJ signals hawkish shift.
⸻
LEVELS CARD (Quick Action)
Primary Setup (Higher Probability) → BUY
• Entry 01: 176.90 – 177.20 (H4 OB + liquidity below short-term lows + D1 discount retracement)
• Entry 02 (Secondary Zone): 176.20 – 176.35 (deeper H4 demand / EQH sweep zone)
• Stop Loss: 175.95 (below H4 OB base + invalid point)
• TP1: 178.40 • TP2: 179.20 • TP3: 180.10
• Order: Pending – Pre-validated ✅ (expire end of NY session or on invalid/red event)
• Session: London / NY continuation
⸻
EXECUTION CHECKLIST
1. News Blackout Gate – 15 min pre / 60 min post JPY or EUR red events.
2. Price must tap zone during preferred session.
3. Trigger confirmation = H1/H4 engulf or BOS required.
4. Execute defined order type.
5. Partial at TP1 → SL BE → trail by structure.
6. Exit on invalidation.
7. Skip if no trigger.
8. EMA stack flat at zone = Skip.
⸻
FUNDAMENTALS & NEWS
• CB Bias / OIS: BoJ maintains YCC + ultra-loose policy; ECB neutral-tight.
• Key Data (7 d): Japan CPI slower; EU PMIs stabilized → supportive for EUR.
• Cross-Asset Sentiment: DXY soft; UST yields steady; risk assets bid.
• Positioning: COT shows JPY short build / EUR net flat.
• Macro Lean: EUR modestly bullish vs JPY carry play continues.
⸻
MARKET MAP
• D1 Structure: Higher-highs > 176 confirm ongoing up-trend.
• H4 Structure: Minor pullback into discount zone after BOS up.
• Liquidity Pools: Below 176.80 & 176.20 / Above 178.80 & 179.60.
• Value Zones: Premium = 179.00 + / Discount = 176.80 – 176.20.
• Play Type: Pullback to OB → Continuation trend play.
⸻
RISK & MONEY MANAGEMENT
• Risk per idea 1–2 %; basket cap 2 %.
• Min R:R ≥ 1:3 to TP2.
• ATR filter satisfied (H1 ATR ≈ 0.25 vs avg spread < 0.03).
• Trail by structure after TP1 partial.
⸻
CONFIDENCE (ONE SENTENCE)
82 % — Bullish HTF trend with fundamental JPY weakness and clean technical discount retracement alignment.
⸻
FINAL EXECUTION STRATEGY / PERSONAL NOTE
• Primary Buy trigger active if 176.90–177.20 zone taps during London session with H1 engulf.
• Last-Candle Audit @ Zone: Engulf or Pin → execute on close; else stand aside.
• Stay flat if BoJ policy comment causes JPY spike or H4 closes below 176.00.
• Zone Status: Primary Fresh Tap Pending | Alternate Valid Retest Pending.
• Execute only with confirmation — no anticipation.
⸻
POST-TRADE JOURNAL (End of Plan)
Outcome + lesson → to be filled after execution.
Trade active
Got no confirmation at the first zone now price has entered zone 02, look for confirmation around this zone or if price drops further last buy trade plan would look like this: Future Setup (Pre-Mapped – ≥ 70 %)
• Bias Tag: WITH-Trend Continuation (only if price extends to discount 176.00–175.80)
• Entry: 176.00 – 175.85
• Stop Loss: 175.45
• TP1: 177.70 • TP2: 178.90 • TP3: 180.00
• Session: London / NY
• Trigger: H1 bullish engulf / BOS
• Zone Status: Fresh Tap Pending
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.