EURJPY: Opportunity to Short

FX:EURJPY   Euro / Japanese Yen
With QE having started on the 9th             of March and the Greece situation still being unresolved, I remain fundamentally bearish on the Euro             . Not to mention the strong USD, which is weakening the Euro             as well. I believe it will continue to be sold off against most other currencies, including the Yen. This pair has been ranging in a 290 pip wide bearish parallel channel on the hourly timeframe for over 13 days, having provided two clear opportunities to short it at the upper trend line . Last Wednesday the pair broke below a bearish daily support line that started September last year and had been tested three times already.

It then traded sideways for about a day, creating a double bottom before popping back above this daily trend line . After reaching the top channel line again, it started dropping fast, once more breaking below and closing below the daily trend line as well as an hourly support level where previously the double bottom had formed. This strong bearish move was followed by two consecutive tests of the broken hourly support, which acted as resistance. In between these tests, the pair printed a new low. This provides us with a new opportunity to enter short and this trade candidate features on my watch list. Provided the “weekend gap” does not disturb the picture, I will be looking to sell this pair at this level after the Asian open.

SL goes 10 pips above the daily trend line for extra security. TP1 = trade risk, TP2 = where the lower channel line converges with the 125 handle, which is a psychological price level. In terms of trade management, when TP1 is hit I would take profit on 1 position and roll my stop loss to breakeven, enjoying a risk free trade hunting for TP2.

There are 225 pips to be made (if this pair follows the script) and the trade has a reward – risk ratio of 2.3!
You don´t need to be a weatherman to know which way the wind blows - B. Dylan
sorry Im begginer and I want to know what is a name of platform what you you where you make all analyses ?? please tell ?!
+1 Reply
JasperForex lauris.kuksa
Thank you for responding. I make my all my analyses on TradingView.
Indeed, got my eyes on this as well, previous support should become resistance and it should bounce off to the downside. I assume your targets are the 1.272 and 1.618 extensions of the previous move down ? The 1.618 also completes an AB=CD pattern around the 125 even handle.
+1 Reply
JasperForex Nico.Muselle
Nice, I had not spotted the AB=CD pattern myself. It all converges nicely around the 125 handle.
Yahia.Awes JasperForex
What will happen with this pair when the eurusd gets a correction? I expect it to be corrected this wednesday because of the FOMC meeting.
+1 Reply
Yahia.Awes Yahia.Awes
After that there is still the possibility to break and get parity on those two.
+1 Reply
JasperForex Yahia.Awes
Thank you for responding. These pairs are highly positively correlated. There are three days of trading before the FOMC meeting, plenty of time for this trade to either play itself out or be well on its way.
Rejection from your resistance level.
I am looking forward for tomorrow, continue to retest and reject it?
+1 Reply
Yes, lets wait and see what Mr. Market has to say.
BoonOng JasperForex
right. =)
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