Since my last post the counter trend idea worked well. Now it's time to start think about taking profit on counter longs and consider re-enterring shorts again.
Daily: Price reached a longer term equilibrium level ard 8,30, it is right at the Kumo, which we have to assume as resistance for further bullish moves. Note that the Kumo is not thick, so we can not exclude a spike above. DMI is bullish, but with no real ADX pickup. MACD is bullish, but seems histogram starts decreasing again. Slow Stoch is overbought and turning down. Tenkan and Kijun stay together below the price with almost a weak bullish cross. The future cloud is overshades Price but cloud components still point down. Chikou is at Price candles.
All in all from here the possibility of a dip to 8,20 is higher than the chance for any further bullish gains.
4 Hrs: Counter trend intact, but ADX reached above 60, with DMI lines not widenning further. Lower supports are: 8,2470, and most importantly 8,2050. The second support is in line with daily Tenkan and Kijun Sen, so for short term that has to be considered as a stronger key level.
Trade idea: Short 0,5 or may 1 trade unit in 8,2900-8,3000 range. Initial tgt is 8,2050. Initial stop is 8,3375. In case Price breaks below the importnt 8,20 again, the position will have to be sized up massively, as in that case price action may get even more bearish, and with a final break of the long term trendline and horizontal support ard 8,10 a long lasting bearish move can develop.
p.s.: Norges Bank rate setting meeting is due tomorrow, comments will cause sharp move in Price. Of course it can be in any direction, that's why we always use a stop :-). Recent macro figures from Norway have been improving, with most of the time better than expected numbers published. Fundamentally I think NOK is the most undervalued G10 currency, but as usual, technicals matter first.
Comments
adam234
⋅
it was an excellent trade idea!
Kumowizard
⋅
Sell more on any possible pullbacks! NOK is extremely cheap!
Kumowizard
⋅
Hopefully this 8,2200 blocks the sudden move and we see one more spike on 4 Hrs to 8,24-8,25. Sell there again.