Kumowizard
Short

EURNOK - Still has a chance to attempt a break lower

FX:EURNOK   Euro / Norwegian Krone
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This pair has been a bit tricky recently. In fact we can clearly see it is not trending at moment.

Daily: Pull back after the sharp spike, followed by a wider range top consolidation. In terms of Ichimoku it has becoming neutral as Future Kumo starts overshade Price and Chikou Span loosing open space, getting close to Price candles again. MACD is bearish , but DMI still bullish . I think we may see a few more days of "sideaway" moves before a clear directional move. Lower Key levels are 8,4250 and 8,3900. Upper key level is 8,5450.
As I think Oil is poised to a correction from recent selloff, EURNOK will likely behave as a proxy, and has chance to finally break lower. Btw in recent weeks all macro datas came out from Norway as better than expected, especially GDP and Mainland GDB prints yesterday. I still believe that NOK is the cheapest G10 ccy, and somehow I do not agree it should be the second worse performer this year after JPY. I mean c'mon, you can not even compare the two countries' performance and characteristics.

4 Hrs: Noise within the range. Price is still in the Kumo, what's more Tenkan and Kijun are in trhe Kumo too and ard same level as Senkou A and Senkou B. This all mean it is still absolutely neutral. Right now Price is crossing back below Kijun Sen and DMI is actualy turning to bearish again, but we still don't have a clear direction. As ROC indicators are still pointing down, I resold some this morning again at 8,48, but the real sell should hapen with a clear break below the 8,42-8,4250 key resistance area .

Stay focused as when the clear break happens, it will have an excellent risk reward to hold short position.

Comments

As you see EURNOK blew up again to new high. Oil proxy. After JPY NOK is the second worst performing ccy this year. It looks like good macro numbers do not matter at all for NOK, just the price of oil. I cut most of my shorts. Thinking about buying some put options at some point, but not now. If I see any new signals of a possible new interim top, I'll let you know.
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I think the trigger for a sell position should be the monthly Tenkan flat around 8.41 that was tested few times lately.
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Kumowizard virgotopia
Yes, I agree. 8,41-42 is the key level on all time frames: monthly, weekly, daily and 4 Hrs.
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