Kumowizard
Short

Norges Bank loves the ccy war! I like counter short.

FX:EURNOK   Euro Fx/Norwegian Krone
93 2 5
Well, the last central bank who I thought would not lose its mind seems to join global idiotism, thinking that through FX channel their problems will be solved or at least would soften!

Hey helloooo Gentlemen! Your ccy has been the weakest among G10 for abt             1,5 years now! Did this relative weakness solve any part of your problem? Nope. So why do they think more FX weakness would help their economy???
The reason why Norway is "sufferring" a bit of backdrop is the structure of their real economy. They have two kind of products: Salmon (maybe less important) and Brent Oil             .... so basically they can weaken their ccy to anywhere, if no one will buy Oil             and other machinery products used in oil             industry (by oil             producers, distributors, etc.), there will be no GDP growth, no inflation , etc.

So the thing is, they should do intervention in Oil             market rather than in FX :-)

Anyway... I got stopped out of my EURNOK             shorts on the day of rate decision, but somehow I still like Norway. After all it is still AAA rated with no Debt (at least QE can't be an option there later), and they still have their savings in their national oil             fund.

Technicals

Daily:
- Bullish trend resumed with heavy buying after rate cut. Ichimoku setup is bullish . Supports are 9,30 and 9,15.
- Heikin Ashi picture is still bullish , but after haDelta has just printed an extreme high (and started to pull back lower since then -> momentum slows a bit), a consolidation or correction should soon happen.

4H:
- Bullish Ichimoku setup, but Price got too quickly too far above its short term equilibrium, and it is currently still too far above Kijun Sen!!! Kijun and Kumo should attract price back.
- Heikin Ashi candles are still green, but watch out for the massive negative divergence in haDelta! Smoothed haDelta is already back to zero, while price has not yet pulled back even a little bit!
- I think if we see a reversal candle and Price dips below Tenkan Sen, we can see a quick correction down to 9,45 +/-. SAR             already hit: bulls should start to reduce / exit longs.

I like to have some counter short again.
Where is your TP?
Reply
I very rarely decide about a TP level in advance. That would anchor my view and limit the profit. I rather try to use trailing stops, so I let the position to run until either I get stopped out on a reversal, or I may decide to reduce/temporarely close the position if I see loss of momentum or especially when I see a reversal signal.

Obviously before I enter any trade, I check what is the possible target to reach compard to my stop loss. This is the only way I can measure my initial risk/reward. If the setup and the initial risk/reward ratio is reasonable, then I enter the trade and later I manage it with the above mentionned trailing stop.

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