Technicals not yet giving a firm sell signal, but it is time to watch!
Daily: The whole year it has been trading in a wide range: 8,1050 - 8,5100.
setup is , but overextended above Kijun Sen. Key levels are: 8,4040 (Tenkan Sen and horizontal), 8,3020 (Kijun Sen, Senkou B, and lower horizontal level)
is turning down, maybe there is a minor negative divergence in it as well. DI+ coming back below , according to this signal we should see some pull back from the overextension.
Slow may turn down again, the sell signal will happen below 80.
4 Hrs: setup, but 8,5050 acts as resistance. Chikou Span may hit Price candles, it that happens, we'll see an attack on support levels. The most importan level to watch is 8,40, where we have 100 , and Senkou B (Kumo bottom) all together. A break below 8,40 could bring heavy selling to this pair.
Strategy: I started to buy strikes 8,40 and 8,32 put options for 2 Months maturity. Waiting for firm sell signal on 4 Hrs to go outright short as well.
I will keep you posted on this trade idea when we get close to the signal.