Kumowizard
Short

Bulls were blocked again at weekly Kijun

FX:EURNOK   Euro Fx/Norwegian Krone
47 1 7
It is very interesting, that despite massive fall (more than -25 %) in WTI and Brent Oil             prices, somehow neither NOK             , nor CAD react that much. What can be the reasons behind NOK             relative strength compared to Oil             price action? Well I have a few ideas, but for technical traders it should not matter. Only price action should matter. And EURNOK             price action has been diverging.

Weekly:
- Ichimoku is still neutral, as price still holds within thick Kumo. What is very interesting, that despite price peaked above weekly Kijun Sen (26 weeks avg), Bulls were not strong enough to hold it above. We still have one more day until week end, but looks like recent candle close will be again below 9,45!
- Heikin-Ashi is used to filter price noise. But sometimes the noise is so laud, that goes through even the filter. Heikin-Ashi signals have been mixed for last 14 weeks. Sometimes it looks more bearish , then more bullish , but most often it reflects absolute indecision.
The last candle may become an inside cande, with a lower high. haDelta/SMA3 seems to turn down again.
- Let me get back to Ichimoku . There is one more important aspect there: Forward Senkou B, the orange line of the forward Kumo is up to 9,3680! This is the average price of the last 52 weeks! Meanwhile Senkou A (green) is very close to Senkou B -> thinner Kumo ahead would be easier to break.
This make 9,3650+ a very important key level! (soon you will see on daily too!)
- When price is below Kijun Sen but MACD crosses back above its signal line, also means indecision and range trading.
- EWO is slightly above zero, but no momentum gain.
- Real lower key level is 9,22

All in all it is a sleeping market, with still good chance to build a major Head and Shoulders top! H&S idea would be invalidated in case of a break and close above 9,55


Daily:
- It is a mess! Just because something is above or below the Kumo, doesn't mean firm bearish or bullish . Why? Because there is no trend without a substantial lower low or high! ANd this is exactly what has been reflected in the Ichimoku setup by absolutely flat longer term averages. Flat Kijun, llat Senkou A + flat Senkou B = thin and flat Kumo.
- Heikin-Ashi is in swing sell signal. It would be more bearish below 9,3675 again, but the real key level is still 9,20-9,22!
As you see the flat daily Kumo is in line with the weekly forward Senkou B. (Translation: 52 days average = 52 weeks average!).
- EWO shows only waves within a range, not much help.
- Also ATR shows extremely low volatility = typical sideaway mkt.

Below you can find my latest post on Oil             . It is probably the most important factor for NOK             . Besides this I have to mention, that NOK             has been the worst perfoming G10 ccy in the last 3 years!!! And that has a consequence: higher, and continously increasing CPI             in Norway! What if on top of this Oil             once makes a reversal and start its target move to 60-65? Well, probably that would be a very good reason to sell massive amounts of EURNOK             on the technical breakdown. But until further signals, just keep small short. Carry is slight positive.
plok
4 months ago
Thanks for your view.
I agree that the oil price will dictate the direction for EURNOK and also that with the recent drop in oil, EURNOK's reaction was relatively muted. On the other hand, when oil almost doubled from the bottom early this year, EURNOK only dropped about 6%.
And indeed CPI is high and housing prices keep going through the roof, not the best conditions for a rate cut (which will probably come anyway)...
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