The four horizontal red lines represent solid levels taken from the monthly TF. Just below the there lies a psychological 1.65000 support level, which in this case is a must to be broken level in order to confirm a outlook. For this level to be broken i would personally prefer the monthly candle to close below 1.65000 level.
Furthermore, there is an almost complete H & S pattern on the chart, which would be complete when the trendline/channel breaks together with the 1.65000 level. In this case the potential 1.65000 turned resistance would also act as the neckline of the H & S. So to put all this together in favor of the bears there 3 concrete confluence factors to take this pair towards the next support that is present at 1.58000!
Fundamentally the Euro is weak at the moment and is predicted to get weak in the coming months, whereas the NZD shows a mixed outlook. So putting all this together the probability of this pair breaking down is HIGH.
Shall there be any updates regarding the trade entries i will post them in a new post. This just represents my outlook on this current pair