4xForecaster
Long

Odd Geo Forming In $EUR v. $NZD | #ECB #RBNZ #kiwi #euro #forex

FX:EURNZD   Euro Fx/New Zealand Dollar
2149 71 32
Friends,

Nothing is what is seems, and this could not be any more true regarding the Geo             .

As we stack up our lessons for this past 24-hour period (that'd be the 5th lesson on occult geometry, Wolfe Wave , Geo             - All the while offering a target on LIVE trades and charting), here is a rare case of an unusual Geo             , in which only a select few features have been used to establish a probable target.

First, the target is defined as a probable range, namely: 1.80212/1.80004.

Second, the Geo             lacks its conditional Leg 1-2 symmetrical ab = cd recirocity. However, what it lacks in its initial set of conditions, it is making it up by keeping the remainder of the conditions whole and true, such that the complexity of the 2-3 Leg in terms of Elliott Wave's TZZ formation, a 3-4 ZZ connection, as well as the Geo             Anchoring (green star), which has been used to define the 1-4 Target Line.

Third, let's lok             back in the history of this chart and appreciate the current price level, falling in line with significant price behaviors, such as bar-switche and, R/S levels - Considering that current price level rests at this line, it would be worth             questioning the motivation of bulls at this time.

If indeed, there were to be a reversal, then a simple ab = cd projection might help define a possible point of repose ... Turns out that this level comes in near alignment with the Geo's own 1-3 Line. and 1-5' Line.


OVERALL:

Consider letting price float to the geometric             convergence defined above. A 50% retracement shoud then be considered, nt only as it would meet the dynamic 1-4 Target Line, but also because this 50% Fib level rests in line with a prior significant structural high, as Point-2 of the Geo             .

A RSI correlation in terms of probable retracement at current price level comes materially as an overhead resistance against this indicator's own trendline - Worth             heeding.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


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@4xForecaster

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David Alcindor
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Comment: 30 OCT 2015 - Following is a cut/paste from "17 SEP 2015 - Chart Update" forward - This is done so that the "Update Status" remains easy to appreciate the frame-by-frame evaluation of the analyses, whereas the discussion thread remains a place in which to bring in each of the chart for ease of discussion:


=======================
17 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:
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David Alcindor


25 SEP 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As we close the week, we are left with a 4th wave still on progress. Internals are suspiciously reminiscent of a developing DZ or TZ (favoring a TZ, as the last internal wave of the Triple Zigzag will require an elongation to the upside, towards a level that nears the prediction as outlined in the DAILY chart, namely the 1.827/1.840 range).

Here is what the chart looks like at this time of market closure:
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David Alcindor


ADDENDUM - Tech-Note:

Looking at the H4 chart, here is how technical converging elements might point to a top and further confirm the defined range as a probable reversal level:

1 - Fibonacci cluster of 1.414 x 1.618 using internal structures of a developing correct

2 - Development of a Geo, with its 5-point plot edging towards the predefined 1.84071/1.82779 range, labelled "Bearish Entrenchment" from which a significant bear-bull battle is expected to occur.
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As you may recall, the Geo has the following internal requirements:

1 - The 1-2 Leg is a reciprocal ab = cd symmetry
2 - The 2-3 Leg is a complex zig-zag, typically taking on the form of a DZ or TZ
3 - The 3-4 Leg is a simple ZZ
4 - The 4-5 Leg is expected to be corrective in nature, although both 2-3 and 4-5 legs can exist as impulse if moving in the same direction as the market (rarer exceptions).

Have a fantastic week-end and be safe.

David Alcindor


01 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


First, a few changes in the plotting of the geometries:
- Geo converted to a Wolfe Wave, as the 2-4 Line failed to maintained price within the parallels
- As a result of above, Point-1 has been adjusted to the higher structure

Second, on a technical note:
- A 1.618 Fib extension approximates the level of projected support as this geometry completes
- A rallying above the 1-3 Line remains the interest here.
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David Alcindor


01 OCT 2015 - Chart Update:
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David Alcindor


01 OCT 2015 - Chart Update:
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David Alcindor


02 OCT 2015 - Chart Update:
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David Alcindor


QUERY/CHART UPDATE:
ChetanFX 2 days ago
Hi David, any updates on this idea?

Hello @ChetanFX - Thank you for the reminder.

However, there is no interim change as far as targets are concerns. I had expected a sightly higher retracement into the bearish resistance area before falling. It fell, but this occurred with little resistance from bears.

Here is the chart as of now:
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I will update it if something counter-trend to the expected direction occurs.

Thank you,

David

ADDENDUM:

... @ChetanFX - Most threatening to current bearish targets is this developing Geo:
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David Alcindor

============================
This is the end of the cut/paste segment - All other inputs will represent up-to-date analysis and commentary.

Best,

David Alcindor
Comment: 30 OCT 2015 - Chart Update:


In the following DAILY chart , the Geo continues to threaten with its 5-point cycle completion. This would bring price into new, loftier territories:
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In contrast, the same DAILY chart brings up the Predictive/Forecasting Model's bearish targets, which remains in force - Note in the chart that the BEARISH ENTRENCHMENT, which was expected out of the Model, remains unanswered, as well as a 5th Elliott Wave by way of trucation:
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As pointed out in prior analyses, the Model is great at defining targets, but not at providing a mechanism of access, or a probable pathway to these targets, which is why I had looked for a different (non-quantitative method) and found the Geo as an alternate and rule-bound geometry of high-probability, which I now often use as background method of visualizing a probable mechanism of access to foreground Model's targets.


OVERALL, I would have to lean towards the probability of further price ascent, so that this 5-cycle completion be satisfied, but also as a means of rationalizing a probable descent as this is what the Point-5 of the Geo would require.

Lengthy explanation, but I hope this makes sense to the traders familiar with this 2-step method.

David Alcindor
Comment: 26 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

In terms of foreground event, Predictive/Forecasting Model's target remain intact and in force, as price breaks through 1.616 support and opens floor to bearish targets:
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In terms of background geometry, the Geo remains a defining - albeit pending completion - feature:
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David Alcindor
Comment: 06 DEC 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As per prior tech-note, pending completion appears to have occurred, while price carves higher highs ... Forecast remains intact and in force:

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Best,


David Alcindor
Comment: CORRECTION: Above entry date should read 06 JAN 2016, and not 06 DEC 2016 ... Getting used to the new calendar.

David
Comment: 06 JAN 2016 - Tech-Note:

There remains a downward risk at the DAILY level worth heeding here ... A break below the recent structure-low (pink square at arrow) would expose price to predictive targets. I have a LONG position at 1.59085 already, but a tight SL is a must at these frames.

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David
Comment: 26 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

In the DAILY chart, price remains tethered to dashed forecast line. Watch for this Point-4 of the Geo, as it remains the most fluid:
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Overall, directional probability remains favorable to bulls.

Best,

David Alcindor
Comment: 28 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As per nature of the Geo's Point-4, it is one element of this reliable geometry that will keep on moving until its final place of residence.

Those who have followed the free public lessons I have posted over the years, the Geo may well be one of the most detailed emphasis on the importance of getting things right - For instance, the concept of "tunneling" represents a conditional feature in most of the Geo's internal geometric completion.

In the case of this $EURNZD, we thought that Point-4 was "it" when we posted 4 months ago (26 FEB 2016) this alignment. However, it appears that the geometry was still in its development, and that the alignment that was perceived as right and correct in February was simply incidental.

At this time, we have the following chart, which is likely to represent the last point of repose for Point-4, not only because of the redressed alignment of the tunneling, but also because Point-4 comes as close as it is "tolerable", relative to the 1-3-Line projection off of Point-2 (in fine dots), corresponding to the "Tolerance Line" which if breached would invalidate the entire geometry.

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At this point, the Predictive/Forecasting Model remains intact and in force, and the supportive geometry is suggesting that it is unlikely that price would adversely exourse any further down, without having to jeopardize, and thus invalidate, the entire forecast.

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Comment: 28 JUN 2016 - ADDENDUM:

Added in the price field is the larger reciprocal ab = cd symmetry, coming into alignment with the speculated 5-Point geometry which defines the Geo:

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David Alcindor
26 AUG 2015 - Chart Update:


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1 - Reciprocal ab = cd symmetry was adjusted
2 - Note fake-out in RSI and price
3 - Model remains bearish in the range defined by background Geo

Overall - No change in overall pathway expectation.


David
+2 Reply
26 AUG 2015 - Chart Update:

Price remains target-bound ... Nodular core joins convergence towards probable target level.


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David
+3 Reply
Hi David; Re ur recent status; "If you find these free "trade-along" sessions interesting, please say so with kind referrals and friendly recommendations. Much appreciated - David"

I see most of the members are looking for ready meal, as they are not prepared to do any sort of due diligence. They probably don't like to take any blame on themselves.

Anyway, I believe your posts/comments deserve at least 10 times more than the rate they are receiving likes and comments, as you are teaching fishing, not just donating fish. Hope the time would unravel the gem inside the shell.
With the best regards, Hamed
+5 Reply
4xForecaster PRO HamedAghajani
Thank you @HamedAghajani. I very much appreciate your kind comments - Yes, most new traders look for direction and sometimes for solution from question they may not yet know how to raise. This is particularly true in trading, since this is such a predatory field, and making money is simply not possible unless you know what most others don't.

Hence, it is only too natural to ask for a simple solutions at first and learn how to ask questions afterward. The learning is backward, for sure, but it reflects having to undo what others have done, or retrace where others have threaded. This already takes many years to accomplish and yet does not provide any edge to the trader who learns all that there is to know about trading, since all that there is to know is already all that everyone else knowns in bits and parts. Unfortunately, the edge starts right when the trader steps into the unknown, the never seen, the never heard and never spoken - Here is only the beginning, and the path is not one that has been marked, except by imagination, and quite frankly by madness.

The forecasting system, the predictive analyses, and all that occult geometry represents an amalgam of my past, having graduated from the school of architecture where I conducted research in North African sacred numbers and geometries (Hassan Fathi was my favorite architect), and kept my interest in the weird and occult correspondence of form, function and sciences with that of the market - I have no problem traders learning from me, for there is only one path to be carved, and if I can provide a departure point to the most erudite person, then I would be glad acting as a stepping stone.

This is all too important. Not to trade, profit or learn, but simply to try to do so as a new thing or as an old thing, but in novel ways.

Ready meals run dry for all of us. Due diligence is the only next best thing for all of us interested in staying the market.

D.
+4 Reply
iefan PRO HamedAghajani
Hi Hamed

I concur, my thoughts exactly. Tradingview members have an amazing opportunity to learn from David. I suspect it would have taken me most of my life to figure out what David has shown us in a few months. What an amazing learning experience, thanks to an exceptionally gifted teacher!
+2 Reply
Thank you @iefan.

David
+1 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
Price just entered GREEN BOX! Get ready!
+1 Reply
1.73823 is the approximate value of the nodular core, depending on the broker you got.

David
+3 Reply
27 AUG 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

At this point, the 1-3 Line received its validation (see chart below). However, the nodular core value of 1.73841 remains unanswered:


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David
+3 Reply
27 AUG 2015 - Chart Update:

1-3 Line validation:


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David
+3 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
Great!
+1 Reply
jonatsgonats 4xForecaster
It is game time... suspect only if equities fall would make this realised.
Reply
27 AUG 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price revisited its base, validated the nodular core line - Use nodule's low as firm SL:


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David
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
Addendum - Keep price clear off of this line, i.e.: No BACA:


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David
+4 Reply
27 AUG 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note: On Adverse Excursions, The Geometric Significance of the 2-4 Line, And The Relevance of 5' and 5'':


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Note the inclusion of an internal 5-point geometry within the larger, pre-existing one, which lends its 2-4 Line as a validation (orange box) to justify recent adverse excursion. Note also that the 2-4 Line of that smaller geometry has parallel lines with its 1-3 Line, preventing this internal geometry from ever forming an ectopic Point-5 in the form of a 5-prime (5') or 5-second (5'') point.

Hence, based on our geometric rule, a BACA even below this internal 2-4 Line should be interpreted as a final invalidation of the internal pattern, whereas the larger pattern is still allowed to undergo an adverse excursion to the extent that ts 2-4 Line, when transposed off of Point-3 can define 5', or off of Point-1 to define 5''.

Hence, any BACA < 1-5'' would invalidate the entire strategy, whereas departure to the upside from these levels (either 5' or 5'') would cause a geometric adjustment in target aiming for the price level of Poin-4 or that of Point-3, respectively, a rule also known and referred herein as the Geo's Off-Set Rule.

David
+4 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
BACA 1 - 3 Line, going long, technical stop below the low...right?
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+1 Reply
Yes, IF and only IF:
1 - You have a low risk tolerance (e.g.: some liek to lose no more than a fixed dollar amount; others have a percentage, ... etc.)
2 - You are trading that smaller geometry (i.e.: The larger geometry allows for wider adverse excursions to the down side.)

David
+3 Reply
Very informative and educational. Thank you very much for your hard work David, it is much appreciated!
+2 Reply
27 AUG 2015 - Chart Update:

Price reacts to 1.618-FE at 1.72764 - It really is a matter of risk management based on a pre-defined risk strategy that would indicate whether the trade remains in the long position. So, always trade at the level which you have defined for yourself - In other words: "Always know the exit before entering any room".


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David
+2 Reply
27 AUG 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Critical question here is the verify whether price BACA > 1-3 Line. If so, there is a higher probability that price will determinedly rise and stay above that line.


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David
+2 Reply
27 AUG 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As price rallies from the defined support, we are now waiting for confirmation. This is best achieved by receiving a "clue", such as the transgression of a prior interdiction level. So, looking at the chart below, that level will require a BACA so that we obtain a high-probability signal of the market's intentions:


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David
+3 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
Hi David, so if I have it right we are looking for a BACA of 1.74831?
+1 Reply
@iefan - One aspect of occult geometry is that one tends to delve into Pascal's infinitely small and infinitely large worlds.

If you look for a "reasoning" based on an occult geometry, there are geometries within geometries that can be drawn infinitely small.

Here, let's take a look at this same, but blank chart:


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Now, there is no apparent geometry here, except perhaps the residual projection of one dominant one which I have used for the analysis. But, here is another one, using a step-by-step construction:


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Basically, I look for signals within the next lower level of calibration (here, I have used M15 down to M5 simply for the illustration, although I usually do not calibrate the trade at any lower than M15), as well as a Predictgive/Forecasting Model-based signal that expresses a directional probability.

Here, at M5, Model says UP (although the smaller the timeframe, the more sensitive, and thus the less specific).


David
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
So, next step is to see whether a commitment to the UP-side of the line is generated, having build a Model-based bias and defined a few structural levels, such as here:


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David
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
The relevance of the 1.74345 is that it was the first commitment ABOVE the BLUE line, which is the signal 1-3 Line, whereas price was then rejected. Assuming that it is likely to test that 1.74345 level once more, then this becomes my commitment level, so to speak (and not the BLUE line from the 1-3 Line, since we are calibrating at a much finer granular level ... The 1-3 Line belongs to too large a system to provide the precision I seek).

David
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
The chart I use has a slightly different levels of OHLC, where there is no opening and/or closing above the blue line ... Until the last 15-minute candle. This is a material change in the behavior, and indicates a higher probability of moving in that direction.

Here is a blown-up of what I am talking about:

1 - First rejection following attempt above the 1-3 Line:
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2 - First acceptance above the 1-3 Line ... i.e.: The entire OHLC candle features are allowed to dwell above the 1-3 Line:
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David
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
... And take-off:

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Glad I can demonstrate this exactly as it is happening.

Hope this makes sense - Again, I would NOT use a M5 for calibration. M15 from a H4 level would be the extent I'd care to analysis a timed entry.


David
+5 Reply
alr14uk 4xForecaster
Nice... Out of interest, have you entered a trade this setup?
+2 Reply
Yes:

1.7384 = Nodular Core

Then:

1.7306 = Nodule's base.

See chart below for nodule relative to Geo:

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David
+4 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
As a quick follow-up, and to show how consistent this step-by-step method can be, using OHLC of the bar (or candle for that matter), here is a Geo that formed as we were waiting for the above example's commitment in price (which by now appears to be committed to the upside, as the arrow indicates a rejection above, as opposed to the prior narrative, where the rejection was below).

So, turning to another quick example, here is a Geo:

The first two PINK stars are Point-1 and Point-4 ... Projected forward, you will see that price constantly fails to rise above that 1-4 Line (RED), until a first trial where it is rejected (ORANGE) as a "pre-signal", and then it finally commits (GREEN), where price is now rejected from the upside of that line.

The point here is that occult geometry, such as discreet signaling demonstrated in the above two examples (first one, we followed the "communication" along the 1-3 Line, and in the second one, we followed the same form of communication among the 1-4 Line) are one of many things that can be read or translated by the trader if she is willing to look.

“You can observe a lot just by watching"
- Yogi Berra



David
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
Here is the illustration in question ... Note also how price took off further on up following the "occult" confirmation that occurred along the 1-3 Line:


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David
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
As we are scaling back from the magnified chart, let's look at the overall context again:

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And now, returning to the original chart with the original geometries:

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Now, as we are approaching the 1.74831, perhaps this example of a smaller geometry might help you change the way you look at that resistance level?

Simply remember the iterative attempts at breaking above a dynamic line (such as the 1-3 or 1-4 Lines), but also across a static line, such as this 1.74831 ... It's a simple step-wise affair, as long as you have the right key (1-3 Line?, 1-4 Line) in your mind's hands.


David
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
Now, using the other internal Geo, there was an apparent 5-prime (5') point definition, which means that the Geo's Off-Set Rule would point to the price level of Point-4 as the HIGHEST probability target (sure, price could go higher, bu my studies of the Wolfe Wave failures have been based on this geometric compensation, so better go for the highest probabilities, and let a much smaller residual position reach out to the lesser potentials, right?):


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David
+4 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
Fascinating.....thank you for sharing, will need to train my minds eye to look for this!
+2 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
It has become apparent that drawing the 1 -3 Line accurately is paramount if it's going to be used at such a granular level.
+1 Reply
It really won't matter at all, as much as it may appear very important. All you need is to anchor the tip-top highs and bottom-tip lows as you project the lines. I see so many charts where a line is drawn across a candle's shadow, when in fact, the "robots" that conduct all of these trades are in fact calculating at a much finer level of precision. Hence, a bar's top with stop where a software desired it to do so and will open at a new candle at a relatively important moment to draw the next candle highs and lows.

This is tantamount to a skeletal development, wherein the heights are simply too important to ignore especially once you find a "tool" to read literally between the lines. Hence, a 1-3 Line is as important a deciphering tool as the 1-4 Line, as a translating machine is to a cryptic dialogue.

The market is not random. There would be no HFT program to read it (even perhaps generate the moves) and thus no predictive analysis and forecast to translate that cryptic communication.


David
+4 Reply
30 AUG 2015 - Chart Update:

After rejection at 1.748 and 1.618-Fib's 1.727, rallying to 1.748 will require BACA to clear the bulls.


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David
+2 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
31 Aug 2015

EURNZD

David could you let me know if this ab-cd for the 1 - 2 Leg is correctly charted? Thank you for a great trade idea!
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+1 Reply
Hello @iefan - The base of the reverse ab = cd count should be such that b is slightly above the 1.7300 level.

Here is a step-by-step way to approach this:

1 - Locate the base of the entire reciprocal ab = cd symmetry, which you wish to ascribe to a move - Here, I would place point-d:

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2 - Then, define point-c at a recent structure, such that the c-d segment becomes ... :

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3 - Then, look for a recent structural low to define point-b, defined at this level, since it has to evolve linearly forward before point-c in price action:

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4 - Now, you have the following ab = cd pattern:

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5 - The core defining features of the Geo that distinguish it from the Wolfe Wave is its constant geometric awareness (by contrast, Mr. Wolfe Wave stipulates that the WW is not based on geometric projections, such as the ab = cd symmetry, or any other asymmetries, such as those that would emanate from Fibonacci extensions - This thus results in a different set of point definion, and thus a different 1-3 and 2-4 Line projections, the consequence of which is that it projects a different set of ectopic point-5, as 5' and 5''. The overall result also demands a set of geometric compensations, which you now know as the Geo's Off-Set Rule).

So, the projection of point-a is based on the closest 1-3 Line settlement, which would preserve a convergence of 1-3 Line relative to 1-4 Line, up to a degree of parallelism. Here, Point-1 is thus projected:

a) First, project horizontally from point-a of the ab = cd pattern:

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b) Then, chose the closest anchor that preserves the 1-3 Line convergence relative to the 2-4 Line, up to a degree where both might be parallel:

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6 - Now, you can project the 1-3 Line. I personally like to keep a thick light block connection between the points 1 and 3, as well as between points 2 and 4, such that:

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PEARL = A very important technical note here is that Point-3 and Point-4 can easily be misplaced. It should be the bar/candle where a departure towards the NEXT point (i.e.: Price moving from Point-3 to Point-4, or moving from Point-4 to Point-5), which defines the placement of Point-3 and Point-4, respectively. Hence, Point-3 and Point-4 should be defined at the end of these bars:

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7 - Now, we can project the 1-3 Line and 2-4 Line, such that:

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NOTE: As you can see, price has converted the 1-3 Line from a now-support-and-then-resistance trendline (RED arrow). What I am interested is whether price has any probability of going down from here. So, I will see whether the prior peak achieved was the expected adverse excursion that defines an ectopic Point-5 as Point-5-prime (5'). To do this, I project the 2-4 Line off of Point-3 (whereas the 5'' would be the same 2-4 Line off of Point-1, right?) - We get the following illustration:

Indeed, price did validate the 2-4 Line translated off of Point-3, as per arrow:

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Now that we have a 5', we can apply the Geo's Off Set Rule and defined the HIGHEST probable level of attainment as price is expected to decline. That level, per that rule, is the price level of Point-4, such that:

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PEARL: Now, if you are looking for a high-probability area of attainment (i.e.: not just that level of Point-4, but also a possible angle of momentum in the expected limited decline, then consider the structure ABOVE Points 1 and 2 as offering a projection off of Point-5', such that:

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See how Points 3 and 4 are symmetrically dissected, and how the end of that symmetrical projection ends on a prior structural level, which is near Point-4 (i.e.: our target based ont he Geo's OffSet Rule)?


Is this all making sense?


NOTE: Whether price commits to decline or not is NOT what we seek here. We are simply trading off of contingencies that are based on objective, sound, reproducible geometries, whose properties allow for the simplest application possible. Hence, we are not trying to get "ahead" of the market, but simply looking for the gait and stride of the market, so as to remain in pace with it.


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
Hi David,
Thank you for this excellent post, I get it now.
I need to continue to study how to construct ab=cd patter.
I took liberties after looking at this image and not fully understanding the ab=cd requirements. Thank you for the very detailed post, I have printed it and its up on my wall as reference. One last question as I'm trying to cement my stop loss strategy, from a technical point of view where would the stop loss have been placed in the above example? Thank you. Iefan
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+1 Reply
@iefan - Sequentially, I would post the following SL (assuming a tolerable risk management of these placements)
:
1 - Below range of nodule
2 - Below Point-3 of larger Geo = Point-4 of expected smaller Geo
3 - Below the projection level of the (PINK) pivot band

David
+2 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
Hi David. Another question on SL please. In the above Geo, if entering a short position at Point 5', would you have placed a technical SL at the FE 1.414 of the swing from the low at Point 4 to Point 5' plus spread plus 5 pips......or is there a more sensible and technically sound SL placement method for this trade? Thank you as always. Kind regards Iefan
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+1 Reply
@iefan - Looking at the 3-4 Leg, consider the following:

1 - In your chart, Point 2 to 3 should represent a partial move towards Point-3, and not represent Point-3 itself - Let's call it "point-a";
2 - Points 3 to 4 offers the geometric division (half-way mark) to Point-3 - Let's call it "point-b"
3 - Now, line 2-a can be projected off of point-b to approximate Point-3, or in this a-b-c geometry, let's call it "point-d".

IF Point-1 to point-d offers a greater angle than the 2-b Line, assume that Point-1 will require adjustment to the higher structure above.

Now, you should be able to end up with a 1-3 Line and a 2-b Line, such that:

1 - The 1-3 Line will determine placement of Point-5
2 - The 2-b Line will offer an approximation of Point-4 as price retraces from Point-3 - Accept any forms of Elliott Wave FLAT for this 3-4 connection

You should NOT have to make any adjustment in the Fibs. Fibs are not to be re-thought, as they offer a constance in the otherwise random field. If there is a problem with the SL, I would assume that there is something wrong in the construction of the Geo, which is the only variable.


David
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
@iefan - I very often overlook the importance of the 3-4 Leg as a complex structure. It becomes quite apparent when you use simple geometric projections, or in the case of the Model, if the Model aims much higher than the Geo, then there is a segment missing in the initial construction which truncates the entire geometry compared to the whole structure it should be instead.

David
+2 Reply
01 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:

First, happy first of September, and thank you do very much for following my analyses thus far. It's free, with no sales, no pitch, and no link to be sent to - Just pure liquid market geometry from the deep woods of technical forests. Stay along a bit longer as we tread softer, more erring paths.

Second, unless price breaks above the recent high, then expect the expected, which is the interim visit to price level of Point-4. Bears lurks here and there, but the bulls are pushing price with unchanged diligence. Look at your own indicators, and become familiar with them, especially at levels that market geometries see resistance, support, reversal, impulses, corrections - It's all there, and all indicators will translate mathematical data from price in its own linear linguistics.



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David
+5 Reply
apap100 PRO 4xForecaster
Quite impressive David!
+1 Reply
04 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:

Price rose to 38.6% Fib, but failed the expected 62.8% retracement. In terms of geometry, I suspect that I either misplaced Point-3 so as to define 5', since price did attain the Geo's Off-Set Rule-based Point-4 level, as price tested lower lows and may have carved out a 5' position from which it rallied.

At this point, I would consider this Geo cycle completely consumed.


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David
+3 Reply
13 SEP 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note: TARGET HIT

Possibly one of the most boring trade I've had to endure, but still, the Wolfe Wave/Geo worked its way up there:


+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
Sorry, posted without the chart:


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In any trading lesson, I would consider this trade a failure, simply because the geometry that was assumed from the beginning did not complete at its expected 1-4 Line, and this is probably due to the fact that the choice of the WW/Geo was flawed from the beginning, since Point-2 was defined at an awkward place, relative to Point-1.

Overall, this was NOT the right choice of a geometry, EVEN IF the target was reached in terms of price level. One eroding set of mistake one can repeat in trading until there is no more capital is being right based on the wrong asumption (as was the case here), as opposed to being wrong based on the right assumptions, in the cases where the outcome did not meet expectation, but the system upon which the trade is based is sound, repeatable and predictable, as is the case with Wolfe Waves and the Geo (especially when dealing with 5-prime and 5-second levels of reversal, which represent failure of a sound system from the point of view of the Wolfe Wave as price has a lesser probability of returning to its 1-4 Line when reversing from these adverse excursion levels, whereas the Geo holds as its core rule that Point-4 and Point-3 represent the highest probability of attainment from 5' and 5'', respectively).



Best,


David Alcindor
+4 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
Good point about being systematic. Thanks for sharing David.
+1 Reply
Awesome but nervous trade! Nice that you play open cart :)
+2 Reply
@LighthouseKeeper - Just curious. What exactly got you nervous? At which point? And what was your directional bias starting the trade, if you traded it, that is.

I'm very much interested in understanding where a trader might perceive risk within a price level. Again, just curious. Feel free to share, you or anyone else. Perhaps I can offer a few pearls.

David
+1 Reply
Yahia.Awes 4xForecaster
Hi David,

I didn't expect it to take that long amount of time to hit the target. But after all +/- 700 pips was not bad and worth the nerve.
+1 Reply
Hello @lighthouseKeeper - Great. Good seeds come to the waiting bird - Not a real expression, but one that works here, right?


David
+3 Reply
17 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:


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David Alcindor
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25 SEP 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As we close the week, we are left with a 4th wave still on progress. Internals are suspiciously reminiscent of a developing DZ or TZ (favoring a TZ, as the last internal wave of the Triple Zigzag will require an elongation to the upside, towards a level that nears the prediction as outlined in the DAILY chart, namely the 1.827/1.840 range).

Here is what the chart looks like at this time of market closure:


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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
ADDENDUM - Tech-Note:

Looking at the H4 chart, here is how technical converging elements might point to a top and further confirm the defined range as a probable reversal level:

1 - Fibonacci cluster of 1.414 x 1.618 using internal structures of a developing correct

2 - Development of a Geo, with its 5-point plot edging towards the predefined 1.84071/1.82779 range, labelled "Bearish Entrenchment" from which a significant bear-bull battle is expected to occur.


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As you may recall, the Geo has the following internal requirements:

1 - The 1-2 Leg is a reciprocal ab = cd symmetry
2 - The 2-3 Leg is a complex zig-zag, typically taking on the form of a DZ or TZ
3 - The 3-4 Leg is a simple ZZ
4 - The 4-5 Leg is expected to be corrective in nature, although both 2-3 and 4-5 legs can exist as impulse if moving in the same direction as the market (rarer exceptions).

Have a fantastic week-end and be safe.


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
01 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:


First, a few changes in the plotting of the geometries:
- Geo converted to a Wolfe Wave, as the 2-4 Line failed to maintained price within the parallels
- As a result of above, Point-1 has been adjusted to the higher structure

Second, on a technical note:
- A 1.618 Fib extension approximates the level of projected support as this geometry completes
- A rallying above the 1-3 Line remains the interest here.


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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
01 OCT 2015 - Chart Update:


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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
01 OCT 2015 - Chart Update:


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David Alcindor
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02 OCT 2015 - Chart Update:


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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
Hi David, any updates on this idea?
+1 Reply
Hello @ChetanFX - Thank you for the reminder.

However, there is no interim change as far as targets are concerns. I had expected a sightly higher retracement into the bearish resistance area before falling. It fell, but this occurred with little resistance from bears.

Here is the chart as of now:

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I will update it if something counter-trend to the expected direction occurs.

Thank you,


David
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
ADDENDUM:

... @ChetanFX - Most threatening to current bearish targets is this developing Geo:

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David Alcindor
+4 Reply
ChetanFX 4xForecaster
Thank You David for the update.
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iznogood 4xForecaster
I'm 'long' from yesterday...
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+1 Reply
Hello @iznogood - This may possibly the way to go in the most immediate timeframe - David
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
I just realized that I seriously need to transfer the recent charts into the chronology section above. This is one of many great features this site has, which is to separate chart updates from discussions, so as to keep it easier for anyone to follow the frame-by-frame evalution of the trade/price, which the discussion remains relevant to the underlying price changes. I like this alot.

David
+3 Reply
30 OCT 2015 - Chart Update:


In the following DAILY chart , the Geo continues to threaten with its 5-point cycle completion. This would bring price into new, loftier territories:
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In contrast, the same DAILY chart brings up the Predictive/Forecasting Model's bearish targets, which remains in force - Note in the chart that the BEARISH ENTRENCHMENT, which was expected out of the Model, remains unanswered, as well as a 5th Elliott Wave by way of trucation:
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As pointed out in prior analyses, the Model is great at defining targets, but not at providing a mechanism of access, or a probable pathway to these targets, which is why I had looked for a different (non-quantitative method) and found the Geo as an alternate and rule-bound geometry of high-probability, which I now often use as background method of visualizing a probable mechanism of access to foreground Model's targets.


OVERALL, I would have to lean towards the probability of further price ascent, so that this 5-cycle completion be satisfied, but also as a means of rationalizing a probable descent as this is what the Point-5 of the Geo would require.

Lengthy explanation, but I hope this makes sense to the traders familiar with this 2-step method.

David Alcindor
+5 Reply
It's incredible ! great analysis ! thank u for your share.
+1 Reply
buy now?
Reply
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