Back to back patterns on the EURNZD

FX:EURNZD   Euro / New Zealand Dollar
39 4 0
Firstly, in play is the Bearish Bat on the 4H, with a possible Bullish Gartley on the 1H.
Wow, didn't see that China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI announcement coming in and side swiping this trade. Well, you loose some don't you! Got stopped out for a 51 pip loser... :)
dojitrader MarcusWyatt
the questions I was asking were trying to make the contention
that if you always use the full swing highs and lows you increase
the probabilities of a successful pattern. In this case the harmonics
did not even reach the .382 which should have kept you out of the
trade right there. Or the .886 would have been higher and not hit yet
should one look for the trade any way.
Thus the China Flash would not have been any problem at all
and not side swiped this trade.
Some technical traders would have said that the chart
saw the fundamentals coming.
Best of luck in 2014 !!!!
Just curious !
Why did you put point X where you did instead of using the full swing high
that was hit 2 bars earlier. It gives the look of "curve fitting" and, to my experience,
reduces the probabilities of success. Have you noticed the same of not ?
Thanks for your thoughts !
MarcusWyatt dojitrader
Hi Dojitrader,

It's a valid question. I believe that support and resistance should not be thought of as one particular price, but a zone or area. Using this high tick doesn't always produce the best PRZ zone, I've found. Yes, the choice of X is not technically valid, but placing X within the Support/Resistance zone and focusing more on pattern accuracy has proven to indicate a more accurate PRZ most of the time for me.

Event Risk is always a problem for us Harmonic Traders. The last couple of months I've been trying to incorporate more fundamentals into my day to day trading activity. But still, these announcements do catch you out from time to time.

Happy Trading,
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