ForceFollower
Short

EURNZD New Lows In Sight

FX:EURNZD   Euro Fx/New Zealand Dollar
188 5 0
Probably more to come by to the downside than to the upside. Recent recovery has been very choppy - overlapping bars, clearly a sign of little bull power. The euro             hasn't been the greatest weakling of fx lately, but kiwi's been the currency with sharp claws that help climb high. If wrong, exit above the high of Oct             2nd, if right, exit at the lower red sliding parallel.
After such a large, obvious slide, I wonder if it might not bounce a bit more before continuing? Maybe back up to the crossing of the beige sliding parallel & the blue median line? (If I'm not mistaken that's an 'energy point'... & a bounce to there would make a nice head and shoulders...)
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ForceFollower cryptoyoda
Sure, cryptoyoda, it's a possible scenario, and actually quite common - another bounce (kiss goodbye) off of the thin downsloping upper sliding parallel and the price goes down. That would even be better, as it would give you a higher reward-to-risk ratio. By the way, I can tell you've learned from Tim Morge (based on your vocabulary, eg. 'energy point'), just I did a couple of years ago. A very good teacher, I must admit. Anyway, the high of Oct 2nd must remain intact (inviolate).
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cryptoyoda ForceFollower
:) It's tricky guessing how much 'corrective bounce' is likely; I was mainly going by the similar-size move from May 29 to June 11; there were three 'corrective looking' bounces before an (abortive) 'impulsive looking' follow through...

I've just watched Mr Morge's youtube videos; I guess I picked up the term energy points from there... Apart from that I've just watched some of Paul Coghlan's videos. This seemed like quite a good place to look at some more expertly drawn charts and maybe ask a few questions ;)

One thing (probably of many) that I still don't get about Andrew's Pitchforks is when to draw them? Mr Coghlan always draws them in when he identifies a 'change of behaviour'. But that doesn't seem so well-defined. For example, EURNZD seems to be behaving consistently with the blue fork; if you don't mind me asking, what was it that suggested to you to add the reddish one?
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ForceFollower cryptoyoda
I can still remeber the time, back in 2009, when Paul Coghlan was a student of Tim Morge. He was so brilliant that he was given the Presenter privilege during the webinars. There's also Shane Blankenship, another acolyte of Tim Morge, a very amiable person. Paul's technique has evolved into simplifying things: all he cares about is a common slope abided by the price extremes, whether it's based on a fork or a channel is a secondary information, you know, what matters is: the floor, the ceiling - and his favorite: support becomes resistance and vice versa. However, when the floor/ceiling gets broken, there are always two possibilities: either the trend has changed, or the market will return back within the recent slope formation. So, unless you'r acting with the benefit of hindsight, you never know, if you should be long or short. Tim Morge calls this slope a frequency, and he wants two highs/lows to be taken to call it a CIB a 'change in behavior'. That's something more, but you may still have second thoughts, if the highs you picked, were 'the highs' to watch and if the trend has really changed or not. Tim sees price action like it was some palpable thing, controlled by physical laws, perhaps except for gravity, which would pull all the prices down to zero. For Shane prices develop similarly, with an emphasis on action and reaction.

And it's all OK. It's all great, but, following their rules, I still used to find myself trying to catch the tops or bottoms. And the direction (long, short or flat) is the key - if you know the direction the price is likely go to, the game is yours. So I developed other tools for giving me the direction. I couldn't find them in the forks or channels, because in every point in time, I was able to draw at least two opposite forks: one for the long trade and one for the short trade - and often, the easier one to draw was the wrong one. And quite often price would fall out of the fork and then get back to it, so the next time, when price fell out of the fork, I waited patiently for it to get back on track, and yet, this time it kept on fighting me and screaming at me: "I don't care about your fork!".

But I still use forks. No longer for identifying the direction, but for timing and tuning the entry and exit points. I know the direction from another analysis, and as I apply forks, parallels, MPLs, SRs, APPs, etc., I try to describe graphically price action as accurately as I can, looking, where to enter and where to exit. So I can apply two forks in opposite directions at a time, just for telling me, where support and resistance is, and yet be thinking only one way: if it's upward, I'm all upward - just looking where to enter long and where to exit.

I hope my expereince has cleared a bit some of your doubts. :-)
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cryptoyoda ForceFollower
Wow - thanks some secret history there :) I didn't realise there was a Morge/Coghlan connection. You might want to check out Rick Ackerman's 'Hidden Pivot/Camouflage' methods. Coghlan's definitely studied it (although a comment he made in the most recent webinar about ABCD formations suggests he doesn't use it much, which I must admit found odd).

Anyway, I'll be following your charts closely, & if you don't mind probably asking lots of dumb questions :)
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