I have been waiting for a long time for this trade to materialize and it seems my patience will pay large dividends.
As we can observe from the two bubbles, this pair has touched the 200MAV on Daily twice since the uptrend begin on February 24, 2017. YES, MORE THAN ONE YEAR AGO! The first touch was June 6, 2017 and the price bounced and rallied upward. The next touch was April 13, 2018 and once again the price bounced upward. However, after more than ONE YEAR of waiting, we finally have a strong Daily close BELOW the 200MAV. Moreover, we have market fundamentals to support this trade as well. Sluggish Eurozone growth, Brexit still up in the air, Italian politics in disarray, and now the Spaniards have thrown a wrench in gears with a snap election to destabilize an already weak Euro. To top it off, the Kiwi has been one of the weakest currencies of the past year and is now set to rally.
It's not often both Fundamentals and Technicals align for the perfect trade but this is as close to perfect as we're going to get. I'm short from 1.72308 and plan on riding this down late in to 2018 and reap the rewards of my patience.
As always, good luck in your trading and thank you for looking.
Please feel free to share to opinion/views on the pair and my analysis.
Great analysis and well explained. Jumped in at 1.70 and have the same target for the same time period. Good Stuff
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@DominicCashedOut, Thank you!
WayanEkaLautzePutra
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Thx Mr Zader, Since I Follow your account, I Can slowly recover my loss from trading. Btw are your sure will hold sell position till end of 2018? Can I Have a question? If at 25 May 2018, this pair JUST touched, NOT Break the 200MAV? Is it will be bullish again?
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@WayanEkaLautzePutra, I'm glad my account has been of help to you. I have multiple positions open on this pair and have a nice R/O from my broker to hold this pair long term so I plan to hold it for quite some time. I will take profit on some positions as we near significant supports and I will update that on here. After the retrace, I will open more short positions. But in the long run, this pair has been on a bull trend for more than one year and it is due for a healthy correction before another bull run.
gtomi001
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What is your goal?
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@gtomi001, Ultimately, my goal is 1.55xx region which will take some time to materialize. I will open more short positions as we break further down below old supports.