The pair was in a general downtrend (see weekly chart) and we recently saw a pullback into previous price structure.
The pullback did not manage to gain momentum and it actually stopped at the 38.2 fib retracement (highlighted in ).
On the 4H chart, we can clearly see a in formation: EUR/NZD is thus extremely .
As for the money mangement on this trade, you can see that my stops are quite close. Since my risk/reward ratio is insanely good (7.21:1!), I don't mind being stopped out once or twice because this bias is likely to be proven right.
Again, I'm not predicting anything, just playing the probabilities.