EURNZD
Previous Month : Bearish
Previous Week : Bearish
Daily : Slightly Bullish
- EURNZD finally broken the range and closed below 1.6780 reaching 1.6720 and barely 1.6620, meaning we are in a very solid bearish momentum.
- The COT report showing that NZD sellers are picking up for the first time since the start of 2021 but still not a confirmation that buyers are out yet. I anticipate that this could be the spike that EN does with each new low created.
- Seasonality is not correlated with the current PA as NZD strengthen during Feb and created a pick now while Seasonality is showing ranging and a bit of weakness for NZD. I'll wait for this week to clarify a bit to confirm.
- So with Current solid bearish momentum, COT and Seasonality; I'd expect EURNZD to continue the bearish momentum and any spike will be treated as a good opportunity for shorts until a solid formation above 1.7020 level.
- Through trading several Months EURNZD, I prefer to see retracements to any move in order to have a range to trade to target created. So i recommend to Short after retracement or break and Resistance formation below broken Support and vise versa for Longs.
- We have important news for NZD on Tuesday and Friday for Inflation and Business PMI also some news from China on Wednesday which also effects NZD.
Daily Chart :
Comment:
10 Feb - Based on Asia H/L EURNZD Long = Win +49
- Daily: Bullish
- 4H: Bullish
- Session momentum: Bullish
- Took this trade based on Asia H/L and session bias. During Asia session a support formed at 6760 holding price above broken resistance at 6750 which is Asia high.
-Pre-London closed above AH but didn't hold after, testing back Asia minor support at 6760.
- London open pushed and closed above Asia High on the first 30m candle, waited for support formation on LTF for entry, but price went below AH and tested Asia minor support created at 6760.
- After the close of London 1st hour, the new 15min closed bullish which gave me a better risk to have SL below Asia minor support at 6760.
- TP set to Weekly plan resistance zone low at 6820.
Entry:
15 min :
Trade closed :
- Daily: Bullish
- 4H: Bullish
- Session momentum: Bullish
- Took this trade based on Asia H/L and session bias. During Asia session a support formed at 6760 holding price above broken resistance at 6750 which is Asia high.
-Pre-London closed above AH but didn't hold after, testing back Asia minor support at 6760.
- London open pushed and closed above Asia High on the first 30m candle, waited for support formation on LTF for entry, but price went below AH and tested Asia minor support created at 6760.
- After the close of London 1st hour, the new 15min closed bullish which gave me a better risk to have SL below Asia minor support at 6760.
- TP set to Weekly plan resistance zone low at 6820.
Entry:
Comment:
12 Feb - Based on Asia H/L and HTF EURNZD Long = Partial Win +24
Daily: Bearish
4H: Bullish
Session momentum: Bullish
Took this trade based on Asia H/L and session bias along with HTF weekly plan. During Asia session a support formed at 6790 after creating HH on the 30min TF continuing the bullish momentum from Thursday.
Pre-London tested AH and created a minor support above Asia support formed on 15min TF. 4H was bullish at that time and was looking for for 4H bullish continuation with London open.
London open momentum broken AH and closed above it on the 1st 15m and the next one closed bearish above AH ending the 30m to close bullish above AH which is a confirmation for bullish momentum continuation and possibility of retesting the 6820 and continuation.
Executed the trade once price went above the 15min bearish candle at 6815 with tide SL at 6805 below the minor support formed during PL as we are a solid resistance and 6820.
Price moved as anticipated and broken 6820 extending to fill 10 Feb 4H wick at 6845.
Closed 50% of the trade at 6839 once I noticed the first reaction at 6845 and moved SL to BE.
Looking back to my Weekly Plan, i was looking for a support formation above 6820 in order to have another push to the upside to retest 6870/90 zone. That's why i closed 50% and was looking to have extended push to the up side.
4H closed solid bullish above 6820 and that gave me confidence to keep the remining 50% for a more push to the up side as long 6820 holds.
Price started to form a resistance at 6845 but holding above 6820. With Pre-NY and NY open, price tested 6820 2 times and failed to break. A final visit to 6845 made and then price started falling after taking out 6820 support and get my remaining 50% to BE.
Lesson learned, Price action at resistance and support levels needs to be monitored and not to try to push the market to do what you want and not taking in consideration what it's printing on the chart. EN failure to break above the 4H wick at 6845 which is also a resistance zone top level 6820/45 was an indication that we are not heading up, but as i was trying to push the market up and putting assumptions that all is good, didn't pay attention to what was in front of me.
Entry:
30 min :
50% Close :
TP1:
Trade Close BE:
Daily: Bearish
4H: Bullish
Session momentum: Bullish
Took this trade based on Asia H/L and session bias along with HTF weekly plan. During Asia session a support formed at 6790 after creating HH on the 30min TF continuing the bullish momentum from Thursday.
Pre-London tested AH and created a minor support above Asia support formed on 15min TF. 4H was bullish at that time and was looking for for 4H bullish continuation with London open.
London open momentum broken AH and closed above it on the 1st 15m and the next one closed bearish above AH ending the 30m to close bullish above AH which is a confirmation for bullish momentum continuation and possibility of retesting the 6820 and continuation.
Executed the trade once price went above the 15min bearish candle at 6815 with tide SL at 6805 below the minor support formed during PL as we are a solid resistance and 6820.
Price moved as anticipated and broken 6820 extending to fill 10 Feb 4H wick at 6845.
Closed 50% of the trade at 6839 once I noticed the first reaction at 6845 and moved SL to BE.
Looking back to my Weekly Plan, i was looking for a support formation above 6820 in order to have another push to the upside to retest 6870/90 zone. That's why i closed 50% and was looking to have extended push to the up side.
4H closed solid bullish above 6820 and that gave me confidence to keep the remining 50% for a more push to the up side as long 6820 holds.
Price started to form a resistance at 6845 but holding above 6820. With Pre-NY and NY open, price tested 6820 2 times and failed to break. A final visit to 6845 made and then price started falling after taking out 6820 support and get my remaining 50% to BE.
Lesson learned, Price action at resistance and support levels needs to be monitored and not to try to push the market to do what you want and not taking in consideration what it's printing on the chart. EN failure to break above the 4H wick at 6845 which is also a resistance zone top level 6820/45 was an indication that we are not heading up, but as i was trying to push the market up and putting assumptions that all is good, didn't pay attention to what was in front of me.
Entry:
Took this trade based on previous resistance at 6750 formed yesterday which was a LH for the previous one.
EN retested this level and created Resistance on 1H. Waited for confirmation of this resistance which EN did 2 times, after which i went short on the break of the 30m support.
Trade went in drawdown for 9 pips after being in profit for 5pips .. but waited for the 30min to close either bullish to exit or bearish to stay in.
30m candle closed bearish and next candle continued the down move breaking the low of the previous.
Moved SL to Entry once we reached the previous 4H open level, price just touched the low on the previous 4H candle and bounced back fast in less than 2 x 5m candles hitting my BE.
It was a nice ride but i don't know if i was having wrong TP level or that previous 4H low was something to look at.
Entry: