Technician
Short

(J) Trade 1 : Counter Bias Short

FX:EURNZD   Euro Fx/New Zealand Dollar
7433 163 212
Update 3: Stopped out at break-even
Profit= 0.
Balance= $30,000
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Update 2: Price reached more then 90% of first target, so i moved stop loss to break-even.
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Update 1: Entry was triggered .. Trade is active
==================================================================
Trade 1: Pending Short EURNZD             @ 1.5850
S.L @ 1.5955
T1 1.5690
T2 1.5480

For 30,000 Capital, and 2% risk per trade=$600, Position size = 0.8 lot ( 0.4+0.4)

==================================================================

Reasoning:
A reactive bounce is likely from potential resistance:
  • Main long term descending resistance
  • Fibonacci retracement 0.786
  • Previous Swing High
  • Shooting Star Candle

Wish me luck and best of luck for everyone.
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Technician
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What if it does not touch that level 1.5850 ?
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Technician TOP One_Trade_A_Day_777
6. If 90 percent of first target is reached without triggering entry I cancel the trade (Unless I state otherwise in my updates for the trade).

Journey to 100 Trades: Rules and Guidelines #forex
+5 Reply
Great stuff as usual, simple and useful. Been learning from you! Thanks! Keep at it.
+2 Reply
Technician TOP MrQHTWinWin
Thanks man, what matters is the profits now :)
+2 Reply
I don't completely agree. This stop is too tight for taking advantage of the main long term somehow. I believe in this style it's better to go with the shorter term trend which is a strong up. I am completely new to your trading ideas though. Wish you luck :)
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Sure, one should trade what he sees.
+4 Reply
Hmmm...a 105 pip SL, 40 pips above recent highs. Seems reasonable to me. But I don't care about P/L ratios I just place stops in reasonable places. Try a smaller trade size, see if this trade works, then you can have confidence in Technician for future trade ideas. ATR is .0077
+1 Reply
Delusion jetmac88
Done! :D
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i agreed.
+1 Reply
agreed .
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Good luck man :)
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Thanks
+1 Reply
As they say...when the sun rise, always do in the morning....
Best luck to all...!!! and thanks for sharing!
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Thank you technician
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Maybe you should also warn the traders about adjusting the prices according to their spreads.
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Technician TOP YuzukiChan
I think this intuitive.
+2 Reply
Looks viable, everyone expects a rate cut by the RBNZ this week.
I'm worried though, because everyone's also seeing rising wedges in gbpaud and gbpnzd, and that strong trendline in your chart in this pair.
The contrarian in me trembles a bit, but it does look good.
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Technician TOP IvanLabrie
Yep mate, whats worrying is the strong bullish bias, we might get a reactive bounce though.
Many are expecting a rate cut as u mentioned, and the RBNZ might dissapoint
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO Technician
You know what would be beautiful? If they cut rates and price falls anyway...Would be a very nice short.
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Update 1: Entry was triggered .. Trade is active
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO Technician
Good luck!
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Technician TOP IvanLabrie
Thanks..
+1 Reply
good luck all.trade is triggered and thanks Technician for your kind views.
+1 Reply
Technician TOP Qaiser Butt
Ur welcome. Hope it will be a successful one, however, if not its always fine , as it's just one trade.
+1 Reply
Qaiser Butt Technician
Hope so its going to successful.we all followers going to win this trade. But i do not mind if some how i lose it because Win and lose is part of Forex.
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SL 105Pips , Too far for me,
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DigitalMan PRO No_more_Post
take smaller trade position?
+1 Reply
No_more_Post No_more_Post
I meant, SL 105Pips , risk 2 % for 2 trades, and Profit 160 Pips for 1.52% and 370 Pips for 3.52%. SL too far TP also too far.
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For 30,000 Capital, and 2% risk per trade, Position size = 0.8 lot ( 0.4+0.4)
+3 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO Technician
Technician, same exposure here but on GBPNZD.

GBPNZD: Correction spotted


I'd join you here otherwise.
+1 Reply
Technician TOP IvanLabrie
Strong short term bearish divergence, and 5 up waves. Hope it will retrace as well.
+3 Reply
Technician TOP Technician
Maximum risk 2% of Capital = $600
+2 Reply
What do you think guys, trade is in negative territory, would succeed or fail?
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO Technician
snapshot


Some potential upside left.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
Possible double top.
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Technician TOP IvanLabrie
Lets hope so :D
+1 Reply
Sniper Technician
Looks like and I hope it's going to make a double top then fall, 1.5920?
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Tijmen_K Technician
double top i think it will go down now :D
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Done....:-)
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Hi... Since EUR is strong against most currencies and NZD is weak, is it a good idea to sell this at this point? Also there is a GDP report of EUR is coming in another 6 hrs!!!
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True, but this is already the past... Maybe its time for a pullback.. I use technical analysis.
+2 Reply
Done. :-)
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Just woke up and EURNZD rate is 1.58968 and there appears to be a strong uptrend. I'm taking the trade but at a higher entry point though. Best of luck to us all.
+1 Reply
EURNZD



I got zero risk trade now.
+1 Reply
It creates a doji after shooting star. what will you say about it?
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Hopefully it retraces back.
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I sell the double tops. Price may form ABC pattern at least! RSI divergence and low interested volume all support for sellers.
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joined@1.5910 good luck guys
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Thnx technician for your great views i think this trade is very nice. Im with you :)
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There is no EURNZD in my platform ...... :-(
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thanks technician
+1 Reply
retrace in progress ;)
+2 Reply
You're a genius, I have been trading on and off with no luck but finally I am getting some quality tips and experience and I am pretty sure this will take me somewhere at last. Thank you so much and keep up the great work.
+4 Reply
Thank you so much for this great work, I appreciate the "Reasoning" section particularly, it really makes a lot of sense for beginners.
+1 Reply
Technician, you are genius! My pending order was at level 1.5840...+ 100 pips at the moment ))) hopefully we will reach the target 1.5690!
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with the Greek mess, the euro is hard to trade. I don't hold euro trades very long in this environment, moving BE stops when possible. Trade in our favor now.
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goal half-done
+1 Reply
anish_206 oxojeck
I'd say still 90 pips left for half done. But yeah...
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nice, great first trade so far.. :)
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Going well :D:D
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Took the double top entry and just closed out for +200
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Hello Technician, your prediction is working, magic :)
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Hit the 1st target! Thank Technician! :) I am looking for sell at correction!
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T1 is @ 1.5690 right ?
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Tijmen_K anish_206
indeed target 1 is hitted yet.
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URIFX anish_206
I target @ 1.5710. I think many traders will get small profit there and the price may correct a little bit before going down by impulse wave.
+1 Reply
I followed the idea and made 100pips ,Thanks
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closed out @ 88% of T1 now looking for a reopening
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As the rules stated, we should move sl to be now....great first trade for the journey..keep it up Sir :)
+1 Reply
You nailed it!
+3 Reply
appreciate your effort Technician trade still running in profit 130 Pips. Keep holding it to next target i moved stop loss 100 pip below from entry. Sharing is Caring so keep sharing.
+1 Reply
Yay! O(∩_∩)O
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Do we have to move our SL to BE?
Where must it be placed?

Thanks.
+1 Reply
Following rules I understand we have to move our SL to 1.5858.
+1 Reply
Move your second position to BE after TP1 is hit.
+1 Reply
(J) Trade 1 is moving very nicely as predicted. Truly a great start to the 100 trades journey. Thanks!
+1 Reply
Update 2: Price reached more then 90% of first target, so i moved stop loss to break-even.
+6 Reply
mrkris Technician
The pair Is consolidating for about two hours now just above 1.57000. Think it will brake through considering the strong impulsive move earlier ;-)
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ashif030 Technician
just awesome......
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Good work! I think I missed it, but looking forward for the next one!
+1 Reply
TahirAli toninvestor
Don't worry as we still got 99 trades.hopefully after these 100 trade majority of us will be able to read the chart correctly and identify these trades by ourselves.I will always be indebted to this great guy "Technician".
+1 Reply
Thats too much, thanks :)
+1 Reply
Thanks ALL for your responses. Wish you a happy trade.
Trade is still active. stop loss at break-even (1.5853).
+8 Reply
anish_206 Technician
Thanks should be to you Technician for all your efforts. :)
+2 Reply
ashif030 anish_206
right anish :-)
+1 Reply
I think we, the followers helped to move the price towards south lol.
+2 Reply
LucyW Forexer11
lol.....I had the same thought with you! hahaha
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alexfa Forexer11
hehehe... agreed!!
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BTW, We didn't get any targets yet.
+1 Reply
Technician TOP Technician
Unfortunately missed first target by 10 pips
+2 Reply
Technician TOP Technician
Looks like we are heading to a break-even trade.
+2 Reply
Andrey.Ustinov Technician
1,5850 first then 1,56133 right near S2 and WW tgt
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Technician TOP Andrey.Ustinov
You can start publishing your trades then
+1 Reply
Andrey.Ustinov Technician
snapshot
-1 Reply
Technician TOP Andrey.Ustinov
This is not a trade.
+8 Reply
Andrey.Ustinov Technician
1,5772 Sold lot size 150k units of currency
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Andrey.Ustinov Andrey.Ustinov
average price cause have many enters on downfall
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cal.vad0s Technician
in case of breakeven, if today high @ 1.5933 not violated, would you consider re-enter the market?
+1 Reply
True. Definitely i will look for new short signal.
+3 Reply
mac_abra Technician
But with this bullish euro...perhaps find an entry in E/U or G/U...?
(In case we are stopped out at BE...)
Reply
Lets see what the markets provide
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO Technician
I covered my gbpnzd and pocketed 0.75%, the other half got stopped for break even.
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Technician TOP IvanLabrie
Good one, congrats.
+1 Reply
as usual one more good one tech
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thx, still in play
+1 Reply
Hi, After had a doubt about this call... I took the position and made almost 100Pips. Thnks Technician...
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Congrats to you, u are luckier then me :)
+2 Reply
Tijmen_K Technician
i surely think it will go down again
+1 Reply
YuzukiChan Tijmen_K
Me too. I've just doubled my position.
+1 Reply
Technician TOP YuzukiChan
Nothing guaranteed guys, take care.
+4 Reply
Mr_Pip_Singh Technician
Thanks Technician for the trade. I actually shorted at 1.59, which made my stop loss half the size of what it would have been had I shorted at 1.5855. Therefore I was able to take the full position off this afternoon, with still the same amount of pips as you set for Target 1. Being flexible is key in trading : )

Looking to get in again though on the short position.
+2 Reply
Technician TOP Mr_Pip_Singh
Great you booked some profits.
+1 Reply
Mr_Pip_Singh Technician
Just remembered, I think there is RBNZ today. So Just be careful everyone :)
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BBFX Technician
I bought at 1.5721 ...we may see 1.62... There is always a BEAR view and a BULL view. :-) Good luck everyone. Thanks for your posts to date Technician. Really appreciate the sharing! :-)
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Yes and that what makes a market. Good luck to you as well.
+2 Reply
Hi, why was your entry 1,5850? Because of Price touching the descending resistance again after the Shooting Star?
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It was an intraday resistance for me, thats why.
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Since the first downward push missed the target, maybe we should move the second target a bit up, like 10 pips. What do you think?
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TahirAli YuzukiChan
Yes you can do that.
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Technician TOP YuzukiChan
Not sure what do you mean
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TahirAli Technician
She wants to set second target @1.5490 instead of 1.5480.
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Well, lets just get the first target for now...
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We're about to complete WXYXZ. Take your positions, bears!
+1 Reply
Technician TOP YuzukiChan
:D ... Gotta give you a bonus trade if this works out :D
+2 Reply
anish_206 Technician
@Technician , if you could give us an update setup here for the second bearish attacks, that would be awesome. Please do.
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YuzukiChan Technician
Agh!
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tayokema YuzukiChan
To me, i don't even know the EURNZD pair. I feel that, Technician might be correct prediction of Shooting Star patten. So I put 30% of Capital :) Target 1 has been completed.
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URIFX YuzukiChan
Price is going up! it seem to form AB=CD before going down? How about you YuzukiChan?
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Oh, it's too late I see this now. I've managed to make a good deal of profit by not closing the position. Stop losses are for nooobz, you know... Joking : )
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anish_206 YuzukiChan
So you're still In the short ?
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SL triggered???
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ashif030 ajujohn
trade closed at break-even

no loss, no profit :-)
+2 Reply
anish_206 ajujohn
Yes, I hope @Technician could give us an update setup here for the second bearish attacks, that would be awesome.
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ashif030 anish_206
agree :-)
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snapshot
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Looks like this thing is coming down again.
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anish_206 TahirAli
Do we enter again ?
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TahirAli anish_206
Not until told by "Technician".
+1 Reply
anish_206 TahirAli
Fine, I agree
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anish_206 TahirAli
His 2nd Journey trade is active now FYI
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TahirAli anish_206
I am filled but it cost me 19 pips for the spread its way too much.
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snapshot
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Andrey.Ustinov Andrey.Ustinov
do whatever you want, none can force anyone to open position
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Price is going down, I had shorted from the top @1.58410 (6.18 fibo level)! If price break the side--way zone, a bear impulse wave comes soon!
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i now SELL now
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Pin bar on 4chart. Will it keep moving down Techniacian ?
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A tip: Write the date and/or time when you write the updates, so that traders can follow when you wrote them. (ex. 15-06-10 1 PM - UPDATE 1: )
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Nice one Technician, I entered with aggressive entry on this one, near the doji. Waiting for target #2.
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snapshot
:)
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snapshot

Sorry :P
+1 Reply
Note NZ Central bank is making their interest rate decision today at around 5 EST. Could roil prices in either direction.
+1 Reply
Hey mike, since we are break even on this trade, its better to stay in it until the news comes. We might be able to hit target #2 or come close to it before the 5 pm news. Better to exit the position with as much profit as possible before the news. As you know 5 pm is also the time forex market closes and reopens within few minutes. Thank you for the reminder.
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I dissagree, I think when the interest rate is released, price could either move up or down.
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like a handcrafted clockwork congrats !!!
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Update 3: Stopped out at break-even
Profit= 0.
Balance= $30,000
+2 Reply
Technician TOP Technician
As you can see guys, I was unlucky on this trade as price stopped me out at break-even before hitting my first target. A through update to this trade is coming in the next post..
+4 Reply
kmk.msp Technician
best of luck Sir, it is part of trading.
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sharadkumarp Technician
never mind Technician, Keep going, good luck for next one
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Uppppps What have happened on this pair at 23:00h?
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Interest rate cut from RBNZ
+1 Reply
moneymaking Technician
Protecting your capital first, is the most important thing as a trader.
+1 Reply
Technician TOP moneymaking
True
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