4xForecaster
Long

Prob. Reversal @1.58158; (+) targets @1.622 + 1.644 $EUR $NZD

FX:EURNZD   Euro Fx/New Zealand Dollar
336 8 5
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS/FORECASTING DATA:

High-Probability Reversal at:

- TG-Lo = 1.58180 - 10 DEC             2014

Moderate-probability target:

- TG-1 = 1.62263 - 10 DEC             2014

Low-probability target:

- TG-Hi = 1.64489 - 10 DEC             2014


INVALIDATION CONDITION:

- Failure of "Bullish Entrenchment" range (1.57065/1.57619) invalidates model's predictive analysis/forecasting


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA

-----
Twitter: @4xForecaster
-----
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
10 DEC 2014 - Addendum: Fundamental info

Next DAIRY data: 16 DEC 2014
- Link: https://www.globaldairytrade.info/

Bad news on dairy auction will send this pair upwards. Recent data surprised to the downside, not so much based on direction, but out-of-proportion depth relative to prior upward trend of negative data. Revenue for $NZD are commodity-heavy, and dairy represents a major source from its Asian theater importing partners.

Keep an eye on this FUNDAMENTALLY-driven pair.

Regarding the counter-force in $EUR, refer to recent USDollar chart where I posted an extreme target. Price hit, meandered and rolled from there. Hence, strengthening in the $EUR will probably be reflexive to $USD softening.

David Alcindor

+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
10 DEC 2014 - Update:

From Tiwtter:
----------
$EURNZD nears forecast high-prob reversal level at 1.58180:

-
snapshot


via @tradingview | $EUR $NZD $USD #RBNX #ECB #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
cxn1991
2 years ago
Dear David,

Thank you very much for your insights its been very helpful.

Just wished to clarify where would stops be placed ? Below the entire "Bullish Entrenchment" @ 1.57065 ? or would a breach and close into the "Bullish Entrenchment" be enough reason to warrant an exit of the trade ?

Once again thank you

-XN
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO cxn1991
2 years ago
Hello @cxn1991- I do not offer any trading advice on SL placement, as this can only be defined based on a variety of factors that define and distinguish each traders from one another. Only your risk tolerance, leverage, defined risk percentage can define this.

The structural definitions within most analyses are simply to point out where bears/bulls will fight the fiercest, or where a R/S level is to be expected.

If you trade a very large account with a low RR, I'd say to enter as of the release of the signal. I trade based on my model, given the structures defined in the analysis, but this might represent too wide an exposure to more conservative traders out there.

So, i apologize for appearing so evasive whenever I receive this request, but I don't really have a good recommendation for reasons stated above.

Now, here is a good rule of thumb: I would turn to Fibonacci levels, and look at all prior price swings within the same timeframe as the one you intend to trade. If the price swings have been followed by a similar 0.618 retracement, then I would put my SL at 0.786 9in fact, slight ahead of it, so that my order is taken).

If instead, most price swings have been followed by a deeper retracement, say 0.786 or 0886, then place the SL at the next level (100 would represent the next level to 0.886), but slightly ahead, so that of that next level.

There are other ways to gauge price action. For instance, some pairs are consistent with extensions, such as 1.272, 1.313, or even 1.414 (rarely 1.618, since they are most anticipated). Here too, the SL would need to be placed accordingly.

Note also that, besides the SL, a ENTRY order can also be left floating right at the anticipated Fibonacci level. However, I would make a habit to define your SL and place it in the chart always before defining the entry. TP should only be defined and placed last. This ensures a good safety habit, and a psychology that remains open to the aleatories of the market and tolerant to well-anticipated losses.

David Alcindor
+3 Reply
cxn1991 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Dear David,

Thank you very much for the advice, much appreciated !

-XN
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
12 DEC 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
$EURNZD swung up per forecast; Bullish targets remain intact:

snapshot


via@tradingview | $EUR $NZD #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
19 DEC 2014 - Quick Note:

Price declined, but remained above the forecast "Bullish Entrenchment". Forecast to TG-1 and TG-Hi remain in force.

David Alcindor
+3 Reply
kmk.msp 4xForecaster
2 years ago
this model now invalidate?
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Sign Out