FxWirePro

EUR/NZD ahead of RBNZ and ECB meeting

FX:EURNZD   Euro Fx/New Zealand Dollar
77 0 1
Euro's tepid movements against Kiwi dollar so far were restrained by RBNZ's monetary policy that is scheduled tomorrow, we expect they will keep the OCR on hold at 2.5%. As a result euro             short term bulls tend to get benefitted from this move.

But on the contrary, euro             retreaded water below 1.6330 levels as many turned a sceptical eye to Thursday's crucial meeting of the ECB.

The 19-country central bank is expected to lop a key rate further below zero while it may also opt for a longer and larger QE bond-buying program that aims to juice the economy by anchoring interest rates to spur faster borrowing and spending.

As you can observe EURNZD             has been creeping sideways (see grey shaded rectangular area)to become an underperformer from last couple of trading sessions.

Especially from 20th January, EURNZD             dropped almost 5.75% from the recent highs of 1.7273 to the current 1.6275, current prices have slid below 7 & 21DMA.

Emphasizing more on short term trend of this pair, it has failed to hold onto the previous rallies and now on the verge of breaking supports at 1.6287 levels, today little strength in the pair is only monetary, so advise is not to get bull trapped.

If you already initiated any longs and holding in this pair, you are likely to experience trade paralysis as you may not get opportunity to exit ahead of the above stated significant economic events.

On broader perspectives, if it doesn't manage to hold these current levels then that it would again be projected as failures in upswings and may head towards more price declines since various bearish indications even on monthly plotting.

The convergence of leading oscillator ( RSI ) to sideway to slightly downward trend has been observed when prices were rallying at peaks no convincing momentum is seen, instead volumes were raising on price declines, this would be also treated as the upswings were losing momentum while selling interest is seen in this pair.

In addition to that %D line crossover on slow stochastic above 80 levels on monthly charts which is again an overbought region. Thus, we look ahead at price to test the support at 1.50 areas.

Trade tips: Overall, the trend for this pair is moving in sideways to slightly being bearish biased, the aggressive speculators can build trades with the spreads using one touch EURNZD             vega             binary put options which are constant time and barrier levels. Usually, such binary options for every change in 1 pip the relative change in option price 0.01% or even exponential at high implied volatility times (1W ATM IVs of this pair is more than 21.75%).
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