- back to neutral, thick Kumo shades price candles ahead.
- Heikin-Ashi has been consecutive for the last 6 weeks, with strong momentum, candles had no upper wicks, candle bodies were long. First warning last week end: haDelta hit a relative low with price reaching a strong supp/res level at 100WMA and horizonttal line: 4,23-4,24
The Heikin-Ashi pattern is changing this week! Candle already has an upper wick too, and may print an inside body by friday close! + haDelta/SMA3 ticking up.
This suggests the move is out of steam, and price can start to move up again towards 4,35.
- EWO is neutral
- setup is still
- Heikin-Ashi signal however suggests consolidation or reversal may take place above 4,23-4,24 key resistance.
haDelta/SMA3 has been nuilding a positive divergence, and today the indicator moved above zero line. HA Oscillator swicthed to .
- EWO is , but bars ticking higher.
Market as I hear is pretty much long PLN (short EURPLN ), so in case some unwinds, price can quickly retest to 4,30-4,35 zone.
Strategy: close all shorts / open 0,5 unit CT long!
Also don't forget that NBH is a leader in rate cuts, and unconventional policies, which still can not drive HUF weaker. However National Bank of Poland may follow them at some point, causeing a mon. pol. convergence, which again, could cause PLN underperformance, and further dip in PLNHUF.
If you wanna trade long "Gold", then trade Gold instead ... you are polish I guess, so you know what I mean ;-) "Zloty"
Still PLN was going really well through this years, but it starts to fail in 2016... I don't want to be even worse, but I smell it can be... Strange enough, because all macro/micro indicators are positive, so I can really figure it out (apart from falling WIG, and stock market, but I think, most of the companies, which works for GDP aren't even included at the WIG at all, so we can have falling stock exchange, and GDP, output going up...)
We had a good prosperity, but now market is going against it. Maybe they are betting right...
My whole savings, are so devaluted... Because I dont think about it and was believing in our currency and goverment...
When I see this - I have twice more than in 2008 - I barely move it in usd or chf. I must go working abroad, because with this exchange soon, there must be inflation and import products is costing ridicouls amoint of money (2x more than 2008, 1/3 more than in 2014 when usd was for 3)...
Yeah, I know it was the last moment to buy cheap Euros, lately some dollars, but I was in a deepsht, and don't understand that it can go a lot higher from there.
I always thought that euro is at 4-4.2 - and it was for long time... I know that in 2015 there was huge euro fall, and from there it improve about 10%, but I mean - is it only factor that strengthen EUR against PLN or political factors is mostly ? What do you think about 2017 ? Is it going to be even harder ? I know that NBP is always interventing at the last days of december to improve forex exchange, to have better data for budget.
Anyway, I think after Brexit, PLN will be a lot more vulnarable to shocks than HUF for example.
Stop thinking about "what-if" relations. It doesn't matter at all why PLN is bearish, or why it is bullish sometimes. If it is bearish, trade that way. If porice action is bullish, trade that way.