First of all I don't really understand what makes PLN so attractive, as politics is shame sht there as few months ago. Macro has not changed either.
Weekly: - Ichimoku back to neutral, thick Kumo shades price candles ahead. - Heikin-Ashi has been consecutive bearish for the last 6 weeks, with strong momentum, candles had no upper wicks, candle bodies were long. First warning last week end: haDelta hit a relative low with price reaching a strong supp/res level at 100WMA and horizonttal line: 4,23-4,24 The Heikin-Ashi pattern is changing this week! Candle already has an upper wick too, and may print an inside body by friday close! + haDelta/SMA3 ticking up. This suggests the bearish move is out of steam, and price can start to move up again towards 4,35. - EWO is neutral
Daily: - Ichimoku setup is still bearish - Heikin-Ashi signal however suggests consolidation or reversal may take place above 4,23-4,24 key resistance. haDelta/SMA3 has been nuilding a positive divergence, and today the indicator moved above zero line. HA Oscillator swicthed to bullish. - EWO is bearish, but bars ticking higher.
Market as I hear is pretty much long PLN (short EURPLN), so in case some unwinds, price can quickly retest to 4,30-4,35 zone.
Strategy: close all shorts / open 0,5 unit CT long!
Comments
mmmp12
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Is there any chance for now bearish move toward 4.25?
I think a lot things makes Poland attractive, only populist makes this country worse with huge spikes and volatality on this currency.
If there was PO, it wasn't great, bit volatality wasnt so high as now
Kumowizard
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4,25 is a bit optimistic, but 4,30-35 is possible. However if you wanna trade CEE, then probably HUF is a better choice, as also PLNHUF looks bearish biased. Also Hungary has no risk in short term, I can say the policital SHT is already firm there :-), and they have huge C/A surplus. In the long run (2-3 years) of course Hungary will face serious risks too. But for now HUF is a safe ccy. Safer than PLN.
Also don't forget that NBH is a leader in rate cuts, and unconventional policies, which still can not drive HUF weaker. However National Bank of Poland may follow them at some point, causeing a mon. pol. convergence, which again, could cause PLN underperformance, and further dip in PLNHUF.
If you wanna trade long "Gold", then trade Gold instead ... you are polish I guess, so you know what I mean ;-) "Zloty"
mmmp12
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I know, what you mean :P. It was truly golden until 2009 year and whole f*ckup. From there was high volatility, I read, that a lot of investors have runned away, because of crisis, and 70% of emerging capital inflows were to Turkey and Poland... I don't know how to trade PLNHUF, I think it's exotic-cross pair, thus hard to trade it.
Still PLN was going really well through this years, but it starts to fail in 2016... I don't want to be even worse, but I smell it can be... Strange enough, because all macro/micro indicators are positive, so I can really figure it out (apart from falling WIG, and stock market, but I think, most of the companies, which works for GDP aren't even included at the WIG at all, so we can have falling stock exchange, and GDP, output going up...)
mmmp12
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F***. From 2015 it's losing even again bulgarian lew... I guess it was true that pln has the worst year now from very long time...
We had a good prosperity, but now market is going against it. Maybe they are betting right...
My whole savings, are so devaluted... Because I dont think about it and was believing in our currency and goverment...
When I see this - I have twice more than in 2008 - I barely move it in usd or chf. I must go working abroad, because with this exchange soon, there must be inflation and import products is costing ridicouls amoint of money (2x more than 2008, 1/3 more than in 2014 when usd was for 3)...
mmmp12
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I can't really edit the comment and I want to add - the situation is very different from this ?
Yeah, I know it was the last moment to buy cheap Euros, lately some dollars, but I was in a deepsht, and don't understand that it can go a lot higher from there.
I always thought that euro is at 4-4.2 - and it was for long time... I know that in 2015 there was huge euro fall, and from there it improve about 10%, but I mean - is it only factor that strengthen EUR against PLN or political factors is mostly ? What do you think about 2017 ? Is it going to be even harder ? I know that NBP is always interventing at the last days of december to improve forex exchange, to have better data for budget.
Kumowizard
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My best advise is always follow the spot price action. Don't start thinking about macro, and global, and fundamental factors. That is hard to do timing, I mean fundamentals may point to one waym while price can still go the oter way around.
Anyway, I think after Brexit, PLN will be a lot more vulnarable to shocks than HUF for example.
Stop thinking about "what-if" relations. It doesn't matter at all why PLN is bearish, or why it is bullish sometimes. If it is bearish, trade that way. If porice action is bullish, trade that way.
mmmp12
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Ok, so you think it's sht currency ? I don't trade forex I want to exchange my savings.
If I trade only crude or gold, becuase forex is too unstable for me.
mmmp12
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Ok, now there is 4,35 and has some resistance I think, good moment to go ?
I think a lot things makes Poland attractive, only populist makes this country worse with huge spikes and volatality on this currency.
If there was PO, it wasn't great, bit volatality wasnt so high as now