lapin_eliott
Short

a micro analysis on eursek

FX:EURSEK   Euro / Swedish Krona
following our last analysis on eursek where we expect a big drop , we expect eursek to behave the very same way it did the last two peaks before drop last months. to target the exact point of reversal during those endless ascending move (generally heralding an important reversal) we want to see two things :
1) the upper bollinger band on 4h time frame must draw an upper parabolic maximum
2)the price curve must in a last attempt (typical stop loss hunting) impulsively touch this point and reverse immediately

regarding how eursek is near of such a situation this should take place this monday or at the latest thursday with a flat monday to bring confusion first.

we shall do nothing before seeing that, if it crosses badly this upper bollinger band we won't be caught, if it falls even without doing so we won't believe in the reality of the fall, experience on eursek tells us to be cautious and act if and only if those two conditions are met before
Comment: the initial drop on eursek started without our two necessary conditions to enter a short positions. and of course this drop was erased a couple of hous later, we are still waiting as we think eursek might still be running some stop loss hunting around the 1.53 area before dropping for real this time
Comment: we were wise to be very picky on our criteria, as they were not met, we considered the situation was not a recognizable pattern or situation, we did catch some couple of thousands euros in profits but we closed the trade as we were not sure what kind of move it was. at the end, with the two critaria not met, we are happy to see that indeed it was a surprise surge, being outside in times of this market we are in relief. nevertheless, the more it rises the more it will be a sek buying opportunity in a mid term future. we are however surprised to see that even at this level a majority of retail are long sek, short eur, meaning there are still positions to push out and stop loss to be hit before it reverses. how far will it have to go to destroy these early sellers positions. ???
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