This post is rather an observation than a trade idea.
While the trend and daily Ichimoku setup is massive bullish, I think these are tipical signals of a possible short term trend exhaustion, when one being long should think about taking partial profit: - Daily MACD turning down - Slow Stoch turning down - DI+ line crosses the ADX at high level - pin bars and kind of doji trading at long term key resistance
There is some chance to see minimum a small pull back to 9,0640, or in case EUR will be generally under pressure, then a nice counter trend as well down to 8,99 - 9,00.
No real short signals yet. Even if you think about top hunting here, watch lower (4 Hrs and 1 Hr) time frames and trade according to their signals.
Comments
Kumowizard
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Basically 9,00 initial tgt top was met. I closed Put options on this one as the major uptrend on the daily chart is still intact.
Kumowizard
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Up Up and massive down. This one seems to be working, with real sell signals given today. Hold shorts and Long Put options.
Kumowizard
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New Idea: Buy 2 months Put options @ 9,00 Strike. Mid volatility is relatively low, ard 5,45 %. You can probably buy it for abt 0,0460 (460 SEK pips), which I think is pretty cheap price to try to play a counter trend trade.
justatrader
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Put up a chart of EURNOK. I closed my longs and went short.
Kumowizard
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yes. wise. but looking at NOKSEK, I think EURSEK may perform better.
justatrader
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Hmmm... gotta check that one out... Probably after Draghi's speech tomorrow!!! Wouldn't want to build too much exposure to the Euro
Kumowizard
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That's why I play this on relative value basis through NOKSEK as well. NOKSEK is still not too late to sell, trading in te Kumo on 4 Hrs, with Chikou below price candles, and bearish DMI. Unfortunately not possible to chart it here on Tradingview. Anyway, I doubt Draghi and his friends would like to see this EUR higher ;-)
justatrader
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In regards to the EURUSD, I don't think any shorts (long term) will be advisable unless 1.4 - 1.41 is hit. Weekly charts have an inverted H&S that was formed months ago. Although I suspect if Draghi talks down the euro it might go down to 1.368 (got a sell order at the gap created on 11th close.. 1.388). So in this view, NOK and SEK should be gaining a bit.. if not more. Also EURNOK looks to be going for a long term change of trend??? (Which is what I want you to check for).. I'm looking at 8.11 to close shorts...
NOK/SEK.. my broker doesn't have!!
Kumowizard
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If you remember, or if you check, I have posted long time ago an EURNOK chart here. Indeed, the trend likely reversing to bearish! I also remember that u and me discussed it once, that if it goes to 8,30-8,32 I would open tactial short. Unfortunately it couldnt reach that level, at least not yet.
justatrader
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I think 0.832 might just open up for shorts... at least it seems like that's where price is heading on the H4 charts (reg. EURNOK)..