No more comment, pls see my previous posts on EURSEK.
Daily: The trend line is still there to hold. 4 Hrs: Given the oversold Slow Stoch, we may still see a pull back, which can be a really good opportunity to sell
Important note: On SEK general mkt positionning is extremely short! SEK bears will be grilled at some point.
This time I don't agree. I see it only as a retest to previous breakdown and to Kijun Sen. In terms of Ichimoku it is still rather possibly bearish. Actually on 4 Hrs there was a false break up, but now back below 100 WMA and Kumo. 9,1085 is Kijun Sen there, if it breaks below it will accelerate bearish momentum.
Also if you think about positionning, what's going on, it is harder and harder to be bearish for SEK. People are loaded like hell on USDSEK long... crowded, unwind started with this USD reversal.
As far as EUR is concerned there Mr. Believe Me will do "whatever it takes" to push EUR further lower. Against USD it will be more difficult, but on other crosses together with USD long trade unwinding it will be a massive EUR selling.
So I keep EURNOK and EURSEK strategic shorts, until my system based on the charts tells the quite opposite.
vlad.adrian
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Yes, it does look like that, my bad I did not wait for the day to end...
vlad.adrian
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Looks like it broke. I have closed my long position
Kumowizard
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Yes, it looks like broke the major trend too. From now on, it is a major strategic short I will hold.
Wise to close longs! Do you know what I like the most? When someone is prudent and consistent like you and always follows his/her trading rules.
vlad.adrian
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I am long Eursek and I'm waiting for another rejection from 9.14. If it does brake lower, I will close out my position, if it bounces I will add. This is the sort of trade at crossroads, either it goes up or down. Considering how the weekly chart is looking, I would say that it will reject again, but you never know. Even if everybody is short Sek, it is for good reason. They will keep tightening their monetary policy, so playing SEK on the short side is the way to go, not necessarily against the euro.
Kumowizard
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The main problem with this is the EUR complex. Have you checked my post on EUR crosses? Being long EUR in general I don't think is a good idea at all. But true, this trend is still up. On the other hand probably a lot of investors think same way. So once the unwind of short SEK positions starts, it will be a very nasty quick move.
vlad.adrian
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Yes I agree, the Euro doesn't look good at all, and my position on EURSEK is less than 5% compared to my position on USDSEK. I just want to keep some money on this pair because it might play catch up, Even if the unwinding will start, I use a tight stop (soft stop only) and I will exit immediately if it breaks.