Bitcoin is not a currency, no companies are doing business with it and using the market to hedge. There is no commercial whales moving money around, and no central banks regulating it either. And so the price behaves differently. Gold doesn't have a lot of import/export currency management, but alot is similar, central banks and sovereign funds are major players. As gold goes up I expect it to behave more in a "speculative way".
EURSEK did "top at 6000" as it should be! They call FX a "complex and efficient market" no that is wrong. It is simply a - well yes more efficient market but - a market without hordes of bagholders and bottom chasers.
I think that 95% of the time the Forex market is random, but the rest of the time it's pretty predictable I guess. Much less noobs, and this is why regulators hate Forex and want filthy casuals to avoid it entirely.
This is just 1 price move I know, but it is yet another example of how BTC is different.
What is the point of learning to trade crypto? 90% of what you learn will be lost and can't be transmitted to other assets when the ponzis fall to zero. Or perhaps that knowledge and skill and experience can be useful... Trading hyped stocks and future speculative bubbles with very high retail participation.
I'm not a stock expert and clearly I'd rather continue to OTP FX (+ macro commodities), althought I plan on one day investing long term in stocks maybe even speculate short term on those.
I would even go as far as saying...
Someone reminded me of Pacific Ethanol today, good memories. They were in the news recently, more money problems.
Markets are abstract, speculating is the most abstract activity there is involving markets. 90% can't understand something as simple as buying high and selling low. "Ooga booga first degree you have to buy low and sell high tihi it's obvious" Simpletons like this do not stand a chance in stocks & crypto already, so Forex that is "harder" they don't even stand a crumb of a chance. "Muhahaha every one thinks Bitcoin is going to zero but I noticed that last time it went up haha I am a genius visionary no one thought of that I outsmarted them all"
I don't know if it's sad or funny.
As Jean Claude Van Damme said "they are not aware" ;)
If you want to learn more about this you have to be sneaky and ask or search for something like "when intuition is wrong" not "morons that don't understand abstraction" or so, "oh it's ok to be wrong it doesn't mean you are stupid" because no one will ever admit they are an idiot and no one thinks they are anyway. It's like in South Park where 99% of the town men have a certain part of their body "well above average" 😆 Every one's above average, sure, this shows how smart they really are. "Every girl is beautiful, well above average" kek. Maybe there is a girl that is so terrifyingly ugly she drags the average down, is that what they mean? Euphemism and comforting lies, always. But when you're too smart to believe those...
Have to look for dumb beliefs centuries old because most people dumb beliefs of today are actually the ones that are correct.... Lmao takes the average person literally centuries to understand something.
I'd like to meet the magicians that have plenty of signals in choppy markets. They're so good that they aren't more active during major trends, they produce just as many ideas in dead choppy markets as in ultra trending ones. And they almost all sell something.
Jesse Livermore about 'experts' and 'teachers': "makes his money from selling trading books because he can’t make money in the markets."
The simple facts that these signal services are not more or less productive in changing market conditions, and their systems don't change, is just so hilarous and a huge red signal.
I might short Bitcoin Monday but I'm not "coming back", just taking a look here and there. Made some money when I bought 10 days ago with 10k as a target, got kicked out way before 10k because I trade it as Forex and run for the exit quickly.
Crypto Bagholders are right about something: money is made by holding. They don't understand exactly what they are saying. They are right that crypto has big pullbacks, in either direction, and to stay in and extract as much as possible from trends one has to sit through very big pullbacks (ewwww). Reward is large but risk too, there are no free lunch. But where crypto investors trully amaze me is that while they "understand" that crypto has really deep pullbacks, they rush in to buy at the slightest dip.
Should I just short the pair? What's even left of the non swedish europe? I think I'll just make a small bet, been right and missing out alot lately.
Trade closed: stop reached
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Took a quick and small loss on eursek. Great, I was too afraid of ending my win spree and giving away profit, now I am free. Honestly. Chasing excellence ;) Maybe short the mlm scheme in 2 hours, if I can set a stop like I want to.
Hey Renev, cool thoughts again! It's always fun, entertaining and educational to read Your stuff. Though I didn't understand what U meant by " ..and no central banks regulating it" about BTC, as I thought that was the _good_ thing about it. I mean thank God! they are not regulating it. That was the point, to have something that is decentralized, in case of an economic collapse or similar problem with the USD. Isn't it? But also I have to say, I was very disappointed about the huge drop in March, as it wasn't supposed to do that, but quite the opposite, right? That's when I gave up hope about it. So, still too many fools holding it or what could be the reason? I'm actually advertising my SAAB Cabrio for sale and stated in the ad that I accept BTC too. :D But what I had (small amount) just exited around 9000, as I think it might fall just after the halving as too many people think it's gonna go up, this is why they jumped in it (the fomos) and as soon as it becomes clear that there is no rocket going to the moon, they gonna sell. Also the miners will sell as they stop mining, maybe that creates more offers/less demand so it can go down (short term though). I mean at least this can be a very possible scenario in my opinion. What You think?
Glovilg
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@janfoux, Great Bitcoin analysis. I agree with you and am going to short it in the short term.
janfoux
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@Glovilg, Even though I think it's more likely going down from here (and I didn't even mentioned 2 other aspects that's on the bear side), but aside from this, I would never short anything, anyway.
MrRenev
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@janfoux, About the central bank regulation I mean that for FX central bank meetings and in particular interest rates announcements dictate in part the trends, produce moves, sometimes violent moves, sometimes "in debt for life" even (eurchf), Bitcoin doesn't have central banks dictating price action. For stock I assume there are earnings, macro economy, industry fundamentals, interest rates, competitors... For FX macro economy, country macro, central banks decisions. For Bitcoin... bubble and fomo and random news like "cme futures" and "consensus you are a clown if you think it's the same as some obscure future" and "bakkt are totally different from CME" and "halving this one is the big one it has nothing in common with bakkt and consensus you comparing them shows you know nothing".
Buy the rumor sell the news, I might short BTC the 11.
Bitcoin is bad like other currencies, but for other reasons. Even if for some reason the world declared it was their store of value I would not "invest" in it because it creates nothing.
Retail never sells, got a feeling this can take forever to go down, with lots of big rallies on the way down. When I say forever it might be 10 years, just I don't think it goes down in a straight line in a big "it's over I told you".
janfoux
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@MrRenev, in my opinion it could be good to transfer value and not to store it. Whenever someone would want to make a huge transaction, we could use it but only for that particular transaction. Safest way ever, very very low cost and decentralized, so won't be regulated by the gov. But I won't store the value in it for long, because of the volatility.
MrGabe
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"If you miss out a lot, it means you're doing it right"
You said that long ago. God damn true.