carrytrade
Short

Possible EURTRY carry setup - 5.5% annual yield vs EUR

FX:EURTRY   Euro Fx/Turkish New Lira
194 0 0
It's going to happen eventually.
Technically now looks good but of course we could see another push higher.

CBoT's primary challenge for 2014 will be to slow inflation .

The statistics do not show a significant reflux of capitals from Turkey due to the political crisis for now but the Turkish people seem to lose faith in the national currency, Capital Daily reports.

According to data of Turkey’s Central Bank in the second half of 2013, i.e. after the start of the protests at Istanbul’s Gezi Park, Turkish households have converted in foreign currency an amount equal to $20 billion. If in July the deposits were $98.3 billion, now they have reached $119.3 billion.

This complicates the bank’s task to maintain the exchange rate of the Turkish lira stable in a moment, when the lira lost 7% of its value in a month (in a total of 17% devaluation for the entire 2013). At the same time the USA hits the stimulation of the economy with cheap US dollars, which affects countries like Turkey with a significant deficit in their account.

Why has the TRY fallen so hard over the last 5 years? This could be why. Rates have crashed.
http://www.deltastock.com/english/resources/interest_rate_history.asp?curr=TRY
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