If you are interested in correct application/education of TA and incorporating different time frames as well as methods in your own analysis read on.A comprehensive but simple approach once it is clearly understand and uncover what is unfolding with EUR/TRY in the short,intermediate and long terms.Pair will be analysed in different time frames(monthly weekly etc as well as time frames in any single given chart)in order to set the framework/road map going forward. This application of utilising multi time frames and incorporating various TA methods is necessary from a point of view of short term ( days/weeks) to long term (weeks/months). We must let the price tell us not only what may unfold in the short term but also in intermediate and long terms. It is what I call classical TA analysis which also incorporates legendary trader/analyst Richard Wyckoff's teachings.Rather than doing new posts, there will be updates of this post, if and when there are significant developments such as the one now.
Focus will be reading the price and volume interaction with the price and identifying a potential change in behaviour. Following quote from Mr Wyckoff which has a a significant message to the traders/analysts like us. "Everything that market does today must be compared with what it did before". We will pinpoint developments to this effect and drill them down.
Only purpose of this analysis is for educational purposes but nothing else which must also be noted.
To the point now.
Long time frame monthly chart to start with will be followed weekly and daily and where necessary hourly or even lower.
What is the trend situation here ? Long,intermediate and short term trends ? All up. How does a trend reversal of the short term can/may effect intermediate and long terms ? Change starts with single bars which are representative of short term trend on any given chart ( learn Dow Theory) and has a follow-through effect on the next higher time frame. Why bother with monthly ? We are looking for a price behaviour which may have a ripple effect on the weekly. So far is there one ? My word there is. Potential CLIMAX/EXHAUSTION at the last bar.Look at the range of that bar and compare it with any prior up bar as per Mr Wyckoff's quote above which may give us the clue. This is it as far as the monthly goes (for now anyway). Yes reading as SINGLE BAR and get ready for the weekly chart where we will drill it down further .
Stay tuned....
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Here is the weekly with the commentary on the chart.
This is the latest chart which complements the prior analysis of 29/05/2018
thecharttechnician
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Here is the daily chart. Compare the two reversal bars as shown. Can we see the change already in terms of their range as well as close ?
What to expect now ? Mark the high and low of the last reversal bar at the top as support and resistance to watch, for further potential weakness which may unfold over the coming days. If on hand ( weakness), look for a follow through effect on the next higher time frame weekly. I will make weekly updates from here on or daily when there is a significant development.
thecharttechnician
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Here is the weekly showing two bars of interest and two waves of interest. I hope I can attached the link to the weekly successfully. If not I will re try.
thecharttechnician
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@thecharttechnician,
Despite the fact that there is no confirmed top yet, we have a confirmed high pole suggesting potential early stages of a top being set. This enables us to take a Point and Figure count which may indicate/forecast the extend of the correction/down move over the days/weeks ahead.My workings as well as the bearish target are shown on the chart.Updates will follow...
@thecharttechnician,
A confirmed COMPLEX BEARISH PIVOT at the current session now suggests further correction over the coming days.Pivot high now holds the key on the upside.Short term support which has also been broken at the current session is the first resistance level to watch on the upside.
Watching the price action potentially heading towards it's 200 day SMA and a previously published BEARISH Point and Figure High Pole Target. End of week update will follow to examine the follow through effect of this bearish development in next higher time frame.